Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• The SEC’s possible next move after the expected Coinbase case dismissal.

• Stocks had a little slip on Friday, but they seem to be back on track. At least for now. 

• It’s shaping up to be a slow week for economic data. That is, until the PCE report drops.

With a Coinbase dismissal pending, what’s next?

The industry celebrated Coinbase’s revelation that the SEC is set to drop its case against the company. 

Then the Bybit hack occurred, reminding us all of how erratic crypto news can be. 

You can read about the Bybit stuff here; I want to expand on what the SEC’s latest moves could mean going forward. 

Arie Heijkoop, a partner in Haynes Boone’s investment management division, pointed out the significance of the pending Coinbase action dismissal being “with prejudice” — meaning the SEC doesn’t expect to bring the case back.

He also pointed to the joint filing to “stay” the SEC-Binance case, signaling the agency’s pivot from its regulation-by-enforcement approach (at least toward crypto exchanges). 

“It could therefore also indicate the SEC’s leanings in the Binance and Kraken suits down the road,” Heijkoop said of the agency’s Coinbase decision. “But it does seem to be doing a methodical review of each case on its merits, rather than a blanket reverse on similar open matters.”

Could the 60-day postponement in the Binance case indicate a self-imposed timeline for future guidance by the SEC? Heijkoop said that’s what he’ll be watching for.

So, despite Bitwise general counsel Katherine Dowling noting the agency might be in a “purgatorial state” ahead of Paul Atkins’ confirmation, there is indeed movement. She said she’s not surprised the Coinbase case was “one of the first to fall.” 

This suit was “distinguishable” from the Binance lawsuit filed the day before in June 2023, Dowling noted. The one against Binance alleged fraud and mishandling of customer funds, while the Coinbase case hinged on digital asset classification questions.

“The fact that the SEC had allowed Coinbase to go public after a lengthy process also called into question the bona fides of the case from the start,” she told me. “What had changed fundamentally that caused what appeared to be an about-face by the SEC?” 

We can assume cases with hard evidence of fraud will — and should — proceed, Dowling argued. Those dealing with digital asset classification will more likely be scrutinized and resolved via settlement or outright dismissal. 

Hester Peirce addressed the way the SEC thinks about such classifications in a Friday statement titled “There Must Be Some Way Out of Here.”

Heijkoop doesn’t expect the Coinbase dismissal to indicate how the SEC will approach enforcement actions against any crypto coins or tokens themselves.

“There are pretty significant differences in the many different coin options available, so there is not likely to be a one-size-fits-all approach to regulation of coin issuances,” he added.

I had connected with Heijkoop and Dowling before Robinhood’s news Monday: The SEC closed its investigation (after handing the trading app a Wells notice last year) and won’t pursue an enforcement action.

So, what now?

“I would expect that we should see action in the Ripple litigation next with review no doubt already underway,” Dowling said. “The SEC has spent years and millions scrapping with Ripple with little at this point to show for these efforts and some judicial spankings to boot.”

— Ben Strack

DAS NYC is approaching.

VIP passes? Gone. The agenda? Live. The conversations shaping this market are happening — make sure you’re in the room.

Join some of the industry's top leaders: 

• Stani Kulechov (Avara) – The DeFi architect shaping the next wave of onchain finance.

• Robert Leshner (Superstate) – Tokenized assets aren’t theoretical — they’re here.

• Alex Thorn (Galaxy Digital) – The research that’s setting institutional strategies.

Less than 30 days to go.

📅 March 18-20 | NYC

The number of bitcoins that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought from Feb. 18-23.  

It bought zero the week prior.

Strategy’s latest bitcoin acquisition cost them $1.99 billion in cash (avg. of $97,514 per BTC). The company now holds 499,096 BTC — the largest pile of any company.

US equities erased some of last week’s losses Monday as investors looked ahead to more fourth quarter earnings reports and a key inflation print this week. 

Nvidia is scheduled to report its Q4 earnings on Wednesday afternoon. After months of trading sideways, it’s reasonable to think investors will be looking for any sign to bet again on the chipmaker. On the other hand, the days of Nvidia having little competition are long over. 

Either way, Wednesday’s report will move markets across the board. 

January’s PCE report, which drops Friday morning, is even more important now that other inflation measures have come in hot for the beginning of the year. We’re looking at you, PPI and CPI. 

Still, it’s hard for us to believe the reading will be hot enough to sway the Fed. We think this  pause will last a bit longer. 

Stocks have, for the most part, remained impressively resilient amid widespread uncertainty. Investors are faced with looming tariff policies and the latest data is starting to poke holes in the “economic growth is still strong” theory, which complicates the Fed’s stance. 

The facade did start to crack late last week when the S&P 500 posted its worst daily decline of 2025 on Friday. Analysts largely attribute the growth to disappointing data in the US and overseas. The Philly Fed Manufacturing index released on Thursday showed expansion fell to 18.1 this month from 44.3 in January. The flash Eurozone PMI also came in softer than expected. 

Still, the VIX is at a healthy 17.8, suggesting volatility is not terribly high. We’ll see what happens this week.

— Casey Wagner

Happy Monday! 

We have a relatively quiet week ahead until Friday, when we’ll get the latest PCE report. Markets are expected to continue last week’s volatility as investors continue to evaluate economic data and looming tariff policies. 

Here’s what’s on tap: 

• On Thursday we’ll get the initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 22. After the report notched 219,000 first time filers the week prior, analysts are expecting claims to increase to 225,000. Continuing claims has increased to 1.87 for the week ended Feb. 8, so this will be a key figure to watch in gauging labor market health. 

• January’s PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will drop on Friday. Annual PCE has been steadily ticking up since September 2024, but analysts are expecting a slight downtrend for the first reading of 2025. The median projection for annual headline PCE is 2.4%, compared with 2.6% in December. Core PCE is also expected to drop from 2.8% in December to 2.6% in January.

— Casey Wagner

• Bitcoin had dropped to $94,220, as of 2 pm ET — a 2% drop in the past 24 hours. Ether’s price saw a nearly 6% decline over that span, hovering around $2,650.  

• Crypto investment products saw net outflows of $508 million last week “following uncertainty on tariffs and monetary policy,” according to a CoinShares report. Bitcoin products bled the most ($571 million), while flows into XRP-focused vehicles were positive, at $38 million.  

• Citadel Securities is considering becoming a liquidity provider for cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg reported.