Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• A bitcoin check-in as markets continue acting up.

• Shocker! Market volatility is on the rise.

• These economic events could be the next catalyst for US stocks.

BTC resilience tested as volatility persists

It seems the market was acting up while I was out of office Thursday and Friday. It hasn’t stopped, either.

Several industry watchers called out BTC’s resilience at the end of last week (compared to US equities, for example) following Trump’s tariff reveal. Then the asset’s price plummeted.  

While BTC price stood around $83,000 Friday, Forward Guidance podcast guest Tony Greer called corporate bitcoin buying at every price level “astounding.” He also noted institutions’ ongoing willingness to buy the dip and their apparent long-term belief in the asset.

Though Strategy paused its BTC buying last week, the company bought 22,048 BTC at an average price of ~$87,000 per coin the week prior. GameStop recently closed a $1.3 billion private offering of convertible senior notes; a portion of the net proceeds may go toward buying bitcoin.  

Net outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs have stayed rather modest since peaking at $1.1 billion on Feb. 25. Roughly $165 million left those products last week, Farside Investors data shows.  

Still, Forward Guidance’s Quinn Thompson noted: “It feels to me like if this broader risk meltdown drags too far too long, it’s eventually got to puke I think.”

Let’s fast forward from that Friday conversation, as BTC’s price dropped substantially over the weekend — dipping below $75,000. It whipsawed with equities Monday morning and hovered around $78,500 at 1:30 pm ET. (Casey has more on the current volatility levels below). 

David Hernandez, a crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, noted that BTC not always capitulating in line with other risk assets highlights its divergence from traditional markets. 

“Bitcoin’s behavior the last several days reflects its developing investment thesis as a store of value asset, one that could provide uncorrelated sources of return during moments of macroeconomic uncertainty,” Hernandez told me.

Now, markets eagerly search for any indication that Trump might pause or reverse tariffs ahead of Wednesday. Bitcoin cannot be tariffed, Hernandez added, “offering a potential flight to safety as other assets buckle.”  

LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger argued that the current price levels present a compelling accumulation opportunity, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. 

When evaluating where a “higher low” might emerge for equities and bitcoin, Kruger noted two “resistance-turned-support” levels: the S&P’s 2022 high around 4,800, as well as the $74,000 mark for BTC.

“The weekend’s market turmoil has finally brought these critical zones into play,” he added. “We’re now looking at medium- and long-term levels that should strongly appeal to both US equity and bitcoin investors.” 

Hernandez views $72,000 (the breakout start point following the election) as a key support level to watch. Looking ahead, he points to expected Fed rate cuts serving as a tailwind for risk assets — with sidelined capital possibly returning to equities, credit and crypto as borrowing costs fall.  

The probability of a 25bps cut next month sat at 36% mid-day Monday, according to CME Group data. 

Hernandez added that BTC could see moderate single-digit percentage bumps from the rate cuts that could help it get back to six figures later this year.

Longer term, he told me, a global trade war could spur countries fighting for currency dominance to gravitate toward BTC, given its neutrality and global liquidity.

There’ll be plenty more ebbs and flows before this story’s done.

— Ben Strack

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The amount by which Trump is threatening to increase tariffs on China. 

That is, unless the country withdraws its 34% increase “above their already long term trading abuses,” Trump said in a Monday Truth Social post. China has until tomorrow to do so. If it doesn’t, the 50% hike would go into effect on Wednesday, the president noted.

“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!” Trump added.

Surprise, surprise. Wall Street’s favorite fear index is spiking. 

The Cboe Volatility Index was hovering around 48 Monday afternoon after spiking to 60 overnight. The index measures projected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days. 

The VIX’s 30-day moving average has been on the rise in recent weeks, coming in at 21.4 at the beginning of the month vs. its long-running average of 19.5. 

We’re now almost four standard deviations above the long-term average, marking a level of volatility most recently seen in 2020 and 2008. 

You’re going to see a lot of comparisons to 2020 and 2008 in the coming weeks. While the sizes of the selloffs may be similar, I’d argue the sentiment could not be more different. 

The 2008 crash was characterized by broad mistrust in the financial system and uncertainty around how stability would be restored. Markets eventually recovered thanks to a massive stimulus package, financial bailouts and regulatory reform. 

In 2020, the recession was caused by global lockdowns, resulting in supply chain disruptions, mass layoffs and slower growth. Relief came alongside another massive stimulus package and government policies to reopen the economy. 

The situation we’re in today is not the result of a collapsed financial system or a global pandemic. It would take a single tweet from the president (or a misinformed X account, as we saw today) to push stocks into the green. I’m still undecided on if that’s better or worse.

— Casey Wagner

We hope you got some rest over the weekend, because you’re going to need it. Thanks to tariff news, US equities are already off to the races on another volatile week.

Big banks will start reporting Q1 earnings, and we’ll also get some important economic data points. Here’s what’s on tap: 

• Wholesale inventories for February will come out Wednesday. The report measures unsold goods, and the advanced estimate released last month showed that stock increased by 0.3%. Analysts expect this figure will get an upward revision to 0.4%. An even higher reading would signal that wholesalers who increased inventories ahead of tariffs are still holding on to their product. 

• March’s CPI report will drop on Thursday. The headline figure is expected to show prices increased by 0.1% last month and 2.5% year over year. Core CPI is expected to show a 3% annual increase. Any hotter than that and markets, already in a precarious position thanks to tariffs, will not be happy. 

• PPI for March will be released on Friday. After February's report came in flat — showing no increase in prices at the wholesale level — analysts are expecting a 0.2% monthly increase. Newly announced tariffs will not impact this report. But if producers made preemptive moves to switch up their lines of production, we should see that in Friday’s report.

— Casey Wagner

• The Federal Reserve System’s Board of Governors was set to have a closed board meeting earlier today.

• Ether’s price was $1,557 at 2:15 pm ET — down roughly 14% from a week ago.  

• The Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP) appears set to start trading on the NYSE Arca tomorrow. It seeks daily investment results that correspond to 2x the daily price performance of XRP for a single day.