Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• A look at bitcoin miners’ bull run capital-raising moves  

• China’s probe into Nvidia is the latest sign it will take Trump’s tariffs seriously. 

• Jobs week is behind us. Read what Casey is watching for now.

A crypto stock check-in as miner raises continue 

MicroStrategy has bought more bitcoin, and an analyst team has upped its Coinbase stock price target. But first a look at bitcoin miners, which are increasingly raising capital via convertible note issuances. 

Bitdeer last month unveiled a $360 million convertible senior notes offering. Then last week, Marathon Digital, Core Scientific and Iris Energy initiated convertible notes offerings — amounting to $850 million, $550 million and $400 million, respectively. 

Seven publicly traded BTC miners and data center companies have raised a combined $5.2 billion via convertible notes since June, according to data compiled by TheMinerMag. About 70% of that came in the last four weeks.

That MinerMag stat doesn’t include the most recent issuance: Riot Platforms on Monday proposed a $500 million convertible notes offering.

These moves reflect mining firms capitalizing on growing bullish sentiment around bitcoin among institutional investors, BlocksBridge Consulting founder Nishant Sharma told me.

“This trend is likely to continue, as we’re in the early stages of a new crypto bull run,” he added. Bitcoin’s price was about $98,000 at 2 pm ET Monday — down 3% from 24 hours ago.  

Bitdeer noted the proceeds of its offering would go toward data center expansion, as well as ASIC-based mining rig development and manufacturing.

The firm’s stock has surged 86% over the past month and more than 27% during last Friday’s trading session alone, Benchmark’s Mark Palmer wrote in a Monday research note. Last week’s rally came after the company boosted its SEALMINER A2 mining rig hashrate projection in 2025 from 18 exahash per second (EH/s) to 35 EH/s.  

Palmer raised his Bitdeer stock price target from $16 to $29 — noting “the company’s multifaceted business model provides investors with multiple ways to realize upside.”

Marathon and Riot specifically mentioned having their eye on using the capital to buy more BTC. MARA and RIOT share prices are down 3% and down 23%, respectively, over the past month.

Sharma said it wouldn’t surprise him to see Marathon aggressively follow the “compelling precedent” set by MicroStrategy, noting MARA and competitor CleanSpark, for example, are well-positioned to take “decisive action” on both mining and “hodling.” 

Marathon holds 34,959 BTC, while CleanSpark has 9,297 bitcoins. Hut 8 Mining has 9,122 BTC and said it would use some proceeds from its latest at-the-market (ATM) and stock repurchase programs to purchase more bitcoin “as a strategic reserve asset.”

As teased at the top, MicroStrategy bought another 21,550 bitcoins (for about $2.1 billion in cash) between Dec. 2 and 8, bringing its total pile to 423,650 BTC.

MSTR stock was down more than 4% at 2 pm ET — a bit more than Monday’s BTC price decline.

Coinbase’s share price had dipped 7% Monday by that time, to about $318. Still, Needham analysts John Todaro and Brian Vieten on Monday raised their COIN price target from $375 to $420, noting the crypto exchange is on track (in December) to have its best volumes month since May 2021.

— Ben Strack

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BTC dominance (the asset’s market share relative to the overall crypto segment) as of 2 pm ET Monday. This figure is down more than 6% from a month ago. 

Altcoin activity — an indicator of retail investor flows — has risen significantly over that time, Needham analysts pointed out. 

While this can be a boon for exchanges, Josh Todaro and Brian Vieten cautioned in their Dec. 9 note: “This is a tell-tale sign of increasing risk appetite as well as euphoria in the market which leads to a crash.”

US equities pulled back Monday, easing off last week’s gains as geopolitical tensions, a looming rate decision from the Fed and pending inflation data come to a head. 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes dipped after Monday’s open, each trading 0.4% lower at 2:15 pm ET. 

The share price of Nvidia — Big Tech’s darling that has surged almost 200% this year — slipped on Monday on news that China opened a probe into the chipmaker on suspicions of anti-monopoly law violations. The investigation comes days after President Joe Biden expanded limits on exports of semiconductors to China. This is part of an effort, the administration says, to limit China’s access to cutting-edge AI technology. 

China last week also banned exports of three rare minerals and imposed new sanctions on US defense firms and executives. It’s starting to look like a full-on supply chain war in the final weeks before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. 

After opting to respond with parallel tariffs against the US during Trump’s first term, the Chinese government appears to be taking a more aggressive approach this time around. Trade War 2 is going to be a much dirtier fight. 

Nvidia did not respond to Blockworks’s request for comment and has not made any public statements on the probe. Nvidia does have a less powerful version of its chips that it has made available to China in the wake of Biden’s policies. Shares were trading 2.4% lower Monday at 2:15 pm ET.

— Casey Wagner

Happy Monday! It’s the last full week before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. With labor market data behind us, the focus now is inflation. Here’s what we’re watching: 

• We will see November’s CPI report on Wednesday. Year-over-year inflation is expected to tick up slightly to 2.7%, from 2.6% in the 12 months ended October. Monthly core CPI is expected to remain unchanged from October at 0.3%. Last week’s Goldilocks jobs report should have pushed any officials on the fence into “cut” territory, but there’s no telling what could happen if inflation proves to be stickier than anticipated.

• Inflation data continues on Thursday with the release of November’s PPI report. Analysts are expecting the figure to remain unchanged from October, at 0.2%. Fed funds futures markets on Monday were pricing in an 86% likelihood of a 25-basis point interest rate cut next week, CME Group data shows. 

• Also on Thursday we’ll get weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 7. They are forecast to come in unchanged from the week prior, at 224,000. Seasonal volatility is expected to continue through the end of the year, so wide fluctuations and an uptick in continuing claims would not be surprising.

— Casey Wagner

• Similar to bitcoin, ether’s price had dropped about 4% over the last 24 hours, as of 2 pm ET Monday, to below $3,850. ETH had approached the $4,100 level on Friday. 

• The nearly $3.9 billion of net inflows into crypto investment products last week was the segment’s best weekly showing ever, according to CoinShares data. ETH products saw a record $1.2 billion of net inflows, while BTC offerings contributed more than $2.5 billion to the total. 

• Set to speak at Blockchain Association's third annual Policy Summit next week are Sens. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Bill Hagerty (R-TN), as well as Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), French Hill (R-AR), Ro Khanna (D-CA), and Wiley Nickel (D-NC). Also slated to offer thoughts at the event are SEC Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce, as well as the CFTC’s Summer Mersinger. Casey too will be in attendance.