Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• We know Trump has teased a strategic bitcoin reserve. Will it actually happen?

• Fidelity exec, others discuss what year-two bitcoin ETF demand will hinge on. 

• It’s a busy week for inflation data.

Tis the season for campaign promises follow-throughs

Back in July, President-elect Donald Trump floated the idea of a strategic bitcoin reserve. 

“As you know, most of the bitcoin currently held by the United States government was obtained through law enforcement action,” Trump said during a campaign stop at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville. “You know that they took it from you.” 

“[We will] keep 100% of all bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires” in a “stockpile,” he added. 

After Trump left the stage, Wyoming US Senator and long-time crypto advocate Cynthia Lummis appeared, wielding a stack of papers. 

“Here it is,” she said, holding up the bundle. “This is the Bitcoin Reserve Bill.” 

The crowd, waiting in their MAGA gear and “Make Bitcoin Great Again” hats for hours to see Trump and Lummis, cheered. 

Lummis brought the bill to the Senate floor at the end of July, but it didn’t budge. Now, as we kick off a new congressional term, Lummis is expected to revive the legislation — ideally with a co-sponsor or two this time around. 

The bitcoin reserve has become one of the more talked-about promises Trump has made to the crypto industry. Other pledges made on the campaign trail have either become moot or are too subjective to assess. 

For example, Trump vowed to fire “Gary Gensler on day one,” an executive action that legal experts doubted he could even do. It doesn’t matter anyway because the SEC chair has already announced his resignation. 

Trump also has sworn that his “digital asset advisory council,” to be led by David Sacks, will create a “fair regulatory regime.” We’ll leave it to his numerous crypto donors to settle on a definition of “fair.” 

But the bitcoin reserve, and whether or not it comes to fruition, is something we can quantify. 

I’m a little uncertain about just how much the industry cares about the US government holding bitcoin. I’d imagine there are some exchanges and custodians itching to get their hands on what will no doubt be a lucrative government contract. Plus, the existence of a stockpile would position the US as more crypto-friendly, which the industry, of course, wouldn’t mind. A rising tide floats all boats. 

I’m still skeptical that there’s enough political capital behind the reserve bill for it to move out of committee, assuming Lummis does in fact reintroduce it. Hill staffers and lobbyists I talk to tend to mention legislation around market structure (à la FIT21) and stablecoins far more often. 

Plus, the Senate is going to be swamped with confirmation hearings in the coming weeks and months, and Republicans have laid out a big — and likely expensive — agenda on taxes, immigration and more. 

A fun test for how likely a strategic reserve is will be whether or not the DOJ auctions off around $6.5 billion worth of bitcoin that it recently received the greenlight to sell. 

The court ruling allowing the auction (but not requiring it) came at the end of 2024, so we’ll see if the US Marshals Service undertakes a sale before Trump takes office next week.

— Casey Wagner

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This sub-$90,000 bitcoin price reflects the approximate low point of the asset’s latest dip as macroeconomic factors have weighed on the market. 

Industry watchers pointed to sticky inflation, strong US economic data, hawkish Fed vibes, rising US Treasury yields, etc. as contributors to the downtrend. BTC’s price was ~$92,000 at 2 pm ET — down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and 6.4% lower than a week ago.

After hitting the one-year anniversary of US spot bitcoin ETFs launching, Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart told me that even the more bullish firms behind these products were surprised by the reception.

Matt Horne, Fidelity Investments’ head of digital asset strategists, confirmed to me as much. 

He referenced demand exceeding the company’s “optimistic” expectations across retail investors, advisers and institutions. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) — with $12.2 billion of net inflows — trails only BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in that category ($37.7 billion).

But is the bitcoin ETF market due for a sophomore slump? 

Fidelity has so far had “productive conversations” across all client segments when it comes to rising bitcoin ETF usage in 2025, Horne explained.

He also said about the 16-year-old asset: “A longer history will allow for continued portfolio research and a stronger understanding of investors’ risk tolerance and bitcoin’s role in a portfolio.”

Horne mentioned the “adoption spectrum” of various client types. Related, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said during an X space Friday — using terms from Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm” — that we’re stepping out of the early adopter phase and into the “early majority.” 

Then, borrowing Winston Churchill’s words to describe bitcoin ETF adoption, Horsley added it feels like we’re at “the end of the beginning.” Exploring bitcoin as an opportunity remains “on the to-do lists” across firms within the $30 trillion US wealth management sector, he noted. 

But as Zacks Investment Research’s Neena Mishra told me Friday, whether BTC ETF inflows in 2025 can match/beat last year is likely to hinge on performance.

US bitcoin funds suffered outflows of $569 million and $149 million on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, (markets were closed Thursday to honor Jimmy Carter) amid the BTC price plunge mentioned earlier.  

Casey brought up the possible US strategic bitcoin reserve — something Seyffart said would drive ETF demand. But a BTC pullback (and outflows) could come if Trump and the pro-crypto Congress fail to execute on crypto-related promises.

“Though as more traditional investors use these ETFs, they will likely be a support on bitcoin's price as they rebalance in downtrends by buying more,” Seyffart said. “Conversely, they will also likely be sellers in uptrends as they rebalance to their target allocation levels over the longer term.”

— Ben Strack

Happy Monday! After last week’s focus on jobs data, the coming days are all about inflation. 

Here’s what’s on tap: 

• The first big report of the week will be the December PPI, out tomorrow. Analysts project a 0.3% monthly increase, down from 0.4% in November. Anything lower than this bodes well for rate cuts down the line, but it would take an especially chilly report to move the needle for the next FOMC meeting on Jan. 29. As of Monday morning, the odds of no changes to the federal funds rate sit at 97%. 

• On Wednesday, we’ll receive December’s CPI report, expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase overall and a 0.2% increase in Core CPI. Annual inflation is expected to tick up from 2.7% in the 12 months ended November to 2.9%. If the figures come in hotter than projected, expect a hit on markets and further increases on Treasury yields. 

• We’ll also get a fair amount of Fed speak this week. On the leadership level, Fed Presidents Jeffrey Schmid and John Williams deliver remarks tomorrow, at 10 am and 3 pm ET, respectively.

— Casey Wagner

• Ether price fell below $3,000 early Monday. At 2 pm ET, ETH was trading around $3,005 — about 8% lower than 24 hours ago.

• MoonPay acquired crypto payment processor Helio, the companies revealed Monday. The latter company, which integrates with platforms such as Discord and Shopify, has handled $1.5 billion in transactions. Moonpay co-founder Ivan Soto-Wright said in an X video that the deal would help the combined company transform the future of the crypto economy and onchain payments.  

• MicroStrategy’s buy of 2,530 BTC last week (at an average cost of ~$95,972 per BTC) brought its total holdings to 450,000 BTC (purchased for ~$62,691 per coin). 

• Semler Scientific said Monday it used $23.3 worth of proceeds generated from its at-the-market (ATM) offering to acquire 237 bitcoin. These buys occurred between Dec. 16 and Jan. 10.