Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Ben breaks down the January conditions likely to impact BTC price.

• The crypto industry celebrated Trump’s win. Now they’re throwing a party. 

• This week’s big economic events revolve around jobs data.

BTC hits milestone as possible big month begins

Just days into the new year, bitcoin’s price is back to six figures.

The asset’s price rose above $102,400 on Monday morning. It hovered around $101,750 at 2 pm ET — up nearly 9% from a week ago. 

Crypto is so far seeing its own “January effect” — a term alluding to the potential rise of stock prices during the year’s first month. CoinGlass data shows bitcoin saw price gains — albeit slight ones — during each of the month’s first five days. That hasn’t happened since 2018.

You know by now about BTC’s historic rise to an all-time peak of $108,000 a little over a month after Trump’s election win. Then there was what some called a “healthy” correction fueled by hawkish Fed vibes and profit-taking, with BTC dropping below $92,000 on Dec. 30. 

Grayscale product and research head Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary noted temporary drawdowns during bull markets are common, pointing out the FTSE/Grayscale Crypto Sectors Market Index’s 6% decline in December.

“However, strong demand from US-listed Bitcoin ETPs and treasuries like MicroStrategy's may support bitcoin’s price,” she said when asked about the outlook for January. 

The US bitcoin ETFs welcomed $908 million in net new assets on Friday — rebounding from a combined $940 million worth of outflows over the previous four trading days, Farside Investors data shows.

96% of financial advisers surveyed by Bitwise received a crypto-related question from clients in 2024. This finding jibes with the expected ongoing wealth manager-fueled capital influx into the crypto segment.

As for Sharif-Askary’s mentioning of treasuries, MicroStrategy’s latest bitcoin buy (on Dec. 30-31) was 1,070 BTC for roughly $100 million. Though smaller than its BTC buys in previous weeks, the company also just revealed targeting a $2 billion capital raise via perpetual preferred stock offerings to acquire more BTC.

On that note, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich just noted his company plans to boost its BTC holdings (currently at 1,762 BTC) to 10,000 BTC in 2025. Then there’s KULR Technology Group, which said Monday it bought an additional $21 million worth of bitcoin.

Also set for January, of course, is Trump’s inauguration. And with members of the 119th Congress sworn in last week, hearings on the president-elect’s cabinet nominees are expected to kick off soon. 

Confirmation hearing happenings, and subsequent signals on the pace and extent of future crypto regulatory clarity, could impact BTC price throughout the month, Sharif-Askary told me.

“Delays or restrictive policy announcements may dampen sentiment,” she said, before adding: “Macro factors — including Federal Reserve signals on interest rates and market responses to a stronger US dollar — could also play a role.”

— Ben Strack

This is the 2025 year-to-date return (as of midway through Monday’s trading session) of the Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 1.78% and 0.7%, respectively, since the start of the new year. We may see a January effect after all. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (up 1.2% over the session as of 2 pm Monday) can thank Nvidia’s turnaround for its rally. The chipmaker, up 4.4% over the session, is on track to close at a record high Monday.

Bitcoin Inc., which operates the Bitcoin Conference where President-elect Donald Trump spoke last year, is hosting an industry inauguration celebration later this month. 

Co-hosts for the event, dubbed the “Crypto Ball,” are non-profit Stand With Crypto, Exodus and Anchorage Digital. The sponsorship package to co-host the event costs $5 million, according to documents shared with Blockworks. Other sponsorship opportunities range from $150,000 to $1 million. Sponsors include Coinbase, MetaMask and Galaxy Digital. 

Bitcoin Inc. has partnered with MAGA Inc. and David Sacks, the incoming Trump Administration’s “crypto czar,” to host the Jan. 17 event. General admission tickets, of which 800 are available, are going for $2,500 apiece. 

It’s unclear whether Trump and/or Vice President-elect JD Vance will be in attendance. 

“It’s hard to get a direct confirmation at the presidential/vice presidential level but we’re optimistic they will attend and we will definitely be the event to attend for pro-crypto cabinet members and high-level staffers,” a note from Bitcoin Inc. that was shared with Blockworks read. 

Given the industry’s level of interest in this election, and Trump’s apparent support, we weren’t surprised to hear about the party, or who’s involved. 

Any Forward Guidance readers have a seat at their table? I just might know a journalist itching for a media invite.

— Casey Wagner

Happy Monday and welcome back to our regularly scheduled Forward Guidance programming! 

Today marks the start of the first “real” week of 2025, in terms of the economic calendar. Here’s what’s on tap: 

• A labor report-heavy week kicks off tomorrow with the JOLTS report, scheduled to be released at 10 am and show 7.7 million job openings in November. October’s figure showed openings increased to 7.74 million, which was above the expected figure of 7.48 million. 

• The headline report this week is Friday’s US employment report for the month of December. If you are trying to gauge what the Fed might do on Jan. 29, pay attention to this release. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2% and month-over-month wage increases are anticipated to increase by 0.3%, a slight decline from November’s 0.4% monthly growth. 

• A national day of mourning will be observed on Thursday to honor former President Jimmy Carter. Non-defense and public safety federal agencies, including federal courts, will be closed as will the New York Stock Exchange. Initial jobless claims will be released as scheduled.

— Casey Wagner

• Ether’s price rose to about $3,740 on Monday before falling to $3,690 by 1:30 pm ET — 10% higher than the week prior. Inflows into US ether ETFs amounted to $59 million on Friday, marking the category’s highest total since Dec. 26.

• Calamos Investments said Monday it planned to offer an ETF designed to “capture bitcoin's growth potential while mitigating [its] historically high volatility and drawdowns.” The fund seeks to do so by investing in both Treasurys and options on the CBOE Bitcoin US ETF Index.

• Coinbase last week shared unredacted letters from the FDIC that the crypto exchange’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, claims “show a coordinated effort to stop a wide variety of crypto activity.” Blockworks reported on redacted versions of the letters last month, at which time an FDIC spokesperson declined to comment.