Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Trump’s tariffs are here. We think. 

• What to make of MicroStrategy’s bitcoin-buying pause. 

• It’s a big week for economic data.

The trade war is here

President Trump on Saturday issued promised tariffs on three of the US’s biggest trading partners, sending global markets into a tailspin as investors tried to position themselves for a trade war. 

The higher fees initially were supposed to take effect just after midnight, but the White House said Monday it reached a deal with Mexico to delay the tariffs by one month. Trump also said he has spoken with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and will do so again at 3 pm ET. 

Volatility is the name of the game today — and probably will be all week — as traders struggle to keep up with every new headline. 

I won’t try to recap every market move we’ve seen since Saturday, but here are some top-level highlights: 

• Stock futures, predictably, plunged over the weekend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid sharply at the open Monday, but both indexes pared some losses after news broke that the 25% tariff on Mexico will be delayed. 

• Bitcoin dipped to a 30-day low of just under $93,000 late Sunday but similarly rebounded. The largest crypto was trading around $100,000 at 2 pm ET. 

• The Mexican peso gained as much as 1% Monday, erasing its losses since Friday. The Canadian dollar also moved into green against the US dollar this morning but was not back to pre-weekend levels. 

While Trump was able to reach a deal with Mexico to delay the tariffs for a month, the levies on Canada and China are still set to begin Tuesday, at least at time of writing. 

The tariffs, in theory, should come as no surprise. Trump said on the campaign trail for months that he would hit Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs and China with 10%. 

But then his flurry of first-day actions came, and tariffs were nowhere to be found. Plus, reports that his team would take a gradual approach (like they did back in 2018), circulated. (I’ll be the first to admit, I was definitely in the “gradual” camp myself.)

But the market was “completely under-pricing the risks,” Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid wrote in a note today, hence the “severe shock” we are now experiencing. 

Markets, until now, seem to have been viewing tariffs as more of a negotiation strategy than a reality. And a deal with Canada is still possible, but “there is still asymmetry to the downside in case of disappointment on the progress of these talks,” Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, said. 

Meanwhile, the latest ISM manufacturing index was released today, and it shows there was growth last month for the first time in more than two years. An argument could be made that the boost was due to pre-emptive tariff stockpiling rather than fundamental expansion, but only time will tell. 

The Institute of Supply Management, which conducts the survey, says Trump’s tariffs pose a threat to manufacturing recovery. 

“I don’t think tariffs are going to help us,” Survey Chair Timothy Fiore said. “This is not a good thing for business.” 

Still, Fiore added, the timeline of tariffs (he said even before the Mexico deal was announced that he was skeptical they’ll be in place on Tuesday) remains to be seen. 

The general fear, though, is that manufacturers will have to pay higher prices for raw materials while their own exports could also face higher fees from retaliation tariffs.

— Casey Wagner

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The historical average return for bitcoin in February. The asset has seen a price boost during the month in 12 of the last 14 years. 

21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena pointed this out after the latest decline.

“Crypto cycles rarely sustain parabolic runs without corrections, and shakeouts like these often pave the way for the next leg higher,” he said — adding that macroeconomic conditions point toward “a more accommodative monetary environment.”

MicroStrategy took a breather from its aggressive bitcoin buying spree — during a week that would end with a sizable downturn, no less. 

The company has hoarded BTC for four-plus years now, and accelerated those purchases after the latest US presidential election. 

First, let’s look at MSTR’s recent buys:

Oct. 31-Nov. 10: 27,200 BTC for $2 billion (avg. $74,463 per BTC)
Nov. 11-17: 51,780 BTC for $4.6 billion ($88,627)
Nov. 18-24: 55,500 BTC for $5.4 billion ($97,862)
Nov. 25-Dec. 1: 15,400 BTC for $1.5 billion ($95,976)
Dec. 2-8: 21,550 BTC for $2.1 billion ($98,783)
Dec. 9-15: 15,350 BTC for $1.5 billion ($100,386)
Dec. 16-22: 5,262 BTC for $561 million ($106,662) 
Dec. 23-29: 2,138 BTC for $209 million ($97,837)
Dec. 30-Jan. 5: 1,070 BTC for $101 million ($94,004)
Jan. 6-12: 2,530 BTC for $243 million ($95,972)
Jan. 13-20: 11,000 BTC for $1.1 billion ($101,191 per BTC)
Jan. 21-26: 10,107 BTC for $1.1 billion ($105,596)
Jan. 27-Feb. 2: 0 BTC 

Total BTC acquired since Oct. 31: 218,887 BTC
Total spent on BTC: $20.4 billion (average ~$93,200 per BTC) 

In a one-month span (Oct. 31 to Dec. 1), Saylor’s team bought nearly a third of the BTC it holds today. 

In all, MicroStrategy bought about 1% of the bitcoin supply in three months, and now owns 471,107 BTC — more than 2% of the total number of bitcoin that will ever exist.

While some on social media viewed the BTC buying pause as a bearish development, a couple analysts think differently. 

Benchmark’s Mark Palmer told me it likely stemmed from the firm’s focus on executing its first-ever issuance of perpetual preferred stock. Expected to close Wednesday, that deal would raise $563 million to buy even more BTC.

TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza suspects MicroStrategy was prohibited from buying while marketing this preferred stock — an offering he thinks will allow MSTR to ramp up BTC purchases.  

MicroStrategy did not immediately return a request for comment. 

Palmer said: “We fully expect the company to continue to aggressively lean into its bitcoin acquisition strategy during the balance of 2025.”

— Ben Strack

Happy Monday! A relatively busy week for economic data got a lot more interesting when Trump signed his tariff order.

Here’s what’s on tap: 

• December’s JOLTS report is due Tuesday. Analysts are calling for job openings to remain unchanged from November at 8.1 million. 

• On Wednesday we’ll get the US trade deficit report for December. Last week’s advance estimate showed the deficit had widened to a record high of $122.1 billion, an increase of $18.6 billion from November. 

• January’s US employment report will be released on Friday. Investors are going to want to see Goldilocks data here, especially after December’s 256,000 figure. Analysts are calling for payrolls to increase by 175,000. Anything too hot will leave markets expecting a longer “pause cycle” from the Fed.

— Casey Wagner

• President Trump reportedly signed an executive order to create a US sovereign wealth fund. The effort is set to be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick. 

• Coinbase secured a VASP registration in the UK, allowing the crypto exchange to offer crypto and fiat there.

• Blockworks’ David Canellis wrote about how the Trump effect on bitcoin compares to his first term as president.