Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Casey gives her two cents on why markets pulled back and previews what’s on tap this week. 

• We don’t know if or when we will see a US strategic bitcoin reserve. But more and more companies like the idea.

• Goldilocks is the name of the game this week for economic data.

US equities recover after Trump-fueled rally lost steam last week 

US stocks were once again on the rise Monday, recovering some of the losses posted late last week. Crypto assets — mostly insulated from the selloff — were largely maintaining their post-election rally. 

Let’s start with what caused last week’s dip in equities. In my view, it was a bit of a perfect storm. 

The GOP sweep, as expected, sent share prices higher. When Trump won in 2016, the S&P 500 gained about 6% between election night and Inauguration Day, a slightly bigger bump than the index saw when George W. Bush won in 2000 (+4%). 

The market is, apparently, once again betting on Trump’s plans (lower corporate taxes, fewer regulations, etc.) as being good for business. Or, at least the market felt this way until last Thursday. 

Let’s face it: Trump’s cabinet picks thus far have been controversial. The process, in just two weeks, has been chaotic and dramatic — likely reminding investors that while a red sweep is typically advantageous for shareholders, a Trump presidency is still, well, a Trump presidency. 

These past couple weeks have not exactly been reassuring for those hoping for smooth-sailing politics over the next four years. Couple that with increasing concerns over the economic impacts of Trump’s planned tariffs and mass deportations and it’s no wonder markets pulled back. 

Enter perfect storm condition number two: Inflation is still rising while the job market is proving remarkably resilient. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 9 came in at 217,000 vs. the expected 224,000. Core CPI for October showed prices are 3.3% higher than a year ago; that was in line with expectations, but still a far cry from the Fed’s 2% target. 

This combination makes the Fed’s job more difficult. Chair Jerome Powell told us as much last week when he cautioned the central bank is in no hurry to lower interest rates and will continue to evaluate the data. This week’s data will be telling (but more on that later). 

Doom and gloom aside, stocks were looking up today. The S&P 500 was up 0.4% while the Nasdaq Composite had gained 0.7% as of 2 pm ET. Bitcoin, which seemed to hit a new all-time high almost everyday last week, was holding steady, hovering around $90,300 Monday afternoon. 

Looking ahead, several big companies report third quarter earnings this week, likely moving markets. 

As the largest publicly listed company by market cap in the world, Nvidia on Wednesday will be the highlight. Investors will be looking for signs that the recent AI boom is still paying off for the chipmaker. 

Walmart and Target also report this week, on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. As retail powerhouses, their numbers will give us a different look at consumer health.

— Casey Wagner

That’s a lot of money. It’s also the amount MicroStrategy just spent to purchase even more bitcoin (from Nov. 11 to Nov. 17) amounting to 51,780 BTC. That means the company spent roughly $88,627 per BTC on this latest purchase. 

In all, the business intelligence firm has 331,200 BTC, acquired over the last four-plus years for about $16.5 billion (~$49,874 per bitcoin). That stockpile was worth nearly $30 billion on Monday afternoon.

MSTR shares were up about 8.8% on Monday, as of 2 pm ET.

You just saw (above) how much bitcoin MicroStrategy now holds.

We saw bitcoin treasury strategies start to proliferate earlier this year, with Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, for example, looking to become “Asia’s first MicroStrategy” in April. More buys are coming, its CEO said over the weekend:

Medical tech company Semler Scientific, which bought $40 million of BTC in May, said this morning it acquired 215 BTC between Nov. 6 and Nov. 15. It now holds 1,273 bitcoins. DeFi Technologies purchased 110 BTC in June and had about 204 BTC in its treasury, as of Sept. 30.

Now, after the election, even more companies are apparently ready to buy and hold BTC.

Battery materials provider Solidion Technology said last week it would commit 60% of its excess cash from operations (plus a portion of raised capital) to BTC buys. It will also convert interest earnings on cash held in money market accounts to BTC. 

Solidion notes “the potential for favorable regulatory frameworks and increased institutional adoption, highlighted by the recent wave of bitcoin ETFs” as reasons. 

This morning, two others — China-based integrated circuit design company Nano Labs and Chicago-headquartered Cosmos Health — shared similar intentions, and rationale.

Nano Labs’ news release notes confidence in bitcoin being “a reliable store of value amidst its rising global adoption.” 

Cosmos Health CEO Greg Siokas said in a statement he views both BTC and ETH “not only as potential hedges against inflation and currency devaluation but also as diversification tools offering substantial upside potential.”

Companies buying bitcoin for their treasuries is a piece of the “widespread adoption” narrative on the crypto bull case bingo card.

We continue to watch for if and when the US government, and individual states, could put similar bitcoin reserve plans in motion. It would clearly be big news and likely spur another chapter to the existing price rally. 

— Ben Strack

Happy Monday! We’ve gone over some of the market-moving news we expect to get this week, but there are also some economic reports worth keeping an eye on.

After some of last week’s data was borderline “too good,” investors are going to want to see Goldilocks numbers this week to reinforce another interest rate cut next month. 

Here’s what we’re watching: 

• We will get October’s housing starts and building permits data on Tuesday. September’s numbers came in a bit lower than the prior month, showing a 2.9% decline in permits and a 0.5% decrease in housing starts from August. While analysts are expecting housing starts to have dipped slightly lower in October, they project permits to have posted a mild gain. 

• After initial jobless claims last week fell more than expected to hit a six-month low (217,000 vs. the anticipated 224,000), a reading somewhere between 220,000 and 250,000 on Thursday will be key for those looking to lock in another Fed interest rate cut.

• On Friday, the S&P flash PMIs will give us the first look at November’s national economic data. After last week’s Empire Manufacturing Index showed massive growth in New York, markets will be looking for signs that the broader economy is growing at a more steady pace.

— Casey Wagner

• The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) is “preparing for the clearance, settlement and risk management” of bitcoin ETF options, the group said in a Monday memo. Alison Hennessy, Nasdaq’s head of ETP listings, told Bloomberg these options could be trading on the exchange “as early as tomorrow.” 

• Bitcoin’s price stood at roughly $90,320 at 2 pm ET — up 0.5% from 24 hours prior. Ether was trading at $3,165 at that time, which was nearly 3% higher than a day ago.

• Goldman Sachs seeks to spin out its digital assets platform into a new firm, Bloomberg reported Monday. The goal would be to allow big financial players to use blockchain tech to create, trade and settle financial instruments.

• The assets under management in digital asset investment products hit a new peak of $138 billion at the end of last week, according to CoinShares. This rise came as those products saw $2.2 billion of net inflows from Nov. 11 to Nov. 15 — and as BTC’s price has surged following Trump’s win.