🟠 VC you, VanEck

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Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Ben Strack and Casey Wagner. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s shortened edition:

• US Rep. Tom Emmer still has hope we can see movement on crypto policy before the end of the year. 

• A crypto ETF issuer is jumping into the venture space. Ben looks at where they see the biggest opportunities.

An asset manager with a crypto bent is doubling/tripling/quadrupling down — whatever you want to call it — on the sector. 

VanEck brought to market a bitcoin futures ETF in late 2021, following that up with a similar ETH offering in October 2023. It later chose to shutter both those funds once the SEC approved products that would hold BTC and ETH directly.

To that point, it was among the firms that debuted spot bitcoin and ether ETFs in the US in January and July, respectively.

VanEck (managing about $108 billion in assets) said today that it will now try its hand at venture capital via a $30 million fund focused on crypto, fintech and AI startups. 

Known for its interaction with other X users and its witty one-liners, the VanEck account got real with us:

It’s worth mentioning that leading the fund will be Wyatt Lonergan and Juan Lopez, who formerly led the venture division of USDC issuer Circle.

Stablecoins could be “the ChatGPT moment” for crypto and act as the so-called killer app that brings blockchain to the masses, Lonergan told me in an email. Put another way, he added, the innovations spurred by stablecoins could lead to a “Cambrian explosion” of onchain fintech products across payments and capital markets.

“The infrastructure is battle-tested and ready — as an example, stablecoins will settle $24 trillion in volume this year,” Lonergan said. “And therefore we want to invest in the middleware and applications that enable that volume and capture the most value in the long term.”

Then there are tokenized asset platforms proliferating, noted Lopez. 

Just look at Visa’s recent bid to help institutions issue fiat-backed tokens and test out their use cases. Spain-based BBVA has been working with the payments giant to do just that (on a testnet blockchain) and looks to launch a pilot with select customers on Ethereum in 2025.

“These types of applications and marketplaces will enable new demand for blockchain technology and capture the most value over the next five to 10 years,” Lopez said.

From ETFs to venture funding, VanEck will no doubt be a firm to watch as the segment evolves. It wouldn’t be surprising to see other similar firms widen the ways they get involved in crypto and adjacent industries.

— Ben Strack

The percentage of buyers of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) that never owned an iShares ETF before.

Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s CIO of ETF and index investments, shared this figure during a Wednesday panel at Blockworks’ Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City. 

“We went into this journey with the expectation that we needed to educate ETF investors on crypto, and on bitcoin specifically,” Cohen said. “As it turns out, we’ve done a lot of education for crypto investors on the benefits of the ETP wrapper.”

Roughly $21.7 billion of net flows have entered IBIT since the fund’s January launch — more than double the second-best inflow-gatherer in the segment (Fidelity, at $9.9 billion).

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Hello from Permissionless III! 

Casey sat down with House Majority Whip Tom Emmer to discuss what’s next in crypto policy, why the rep says it’s not too late to see meaningful progress this session, and what things could look like under the next presidential administration. 

Emmer said he’s been encouraged by the recent bipartisan support crypto policy has received. 71 House Dems voted to pass FIT21, the market structure bill that advanced to the Senate last spring. 

“The dam started to break,” Emmer said, referring to the hold Maxine Waters (ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee) has historically had on the party. 

He also said he’s confident crypto will remain part of the discussion through the end of the year. Once the election is over, Emmer said it will take a few weeks for “the dust to settle.” But once we know who’s in control of each Chamber and the White House, lawmakers will have a better understanding of the “negotiating leverage” and they can get to work. 

Another thing he’s confident in? A second term for Donald Trump. 

“He’s evolved on this issue to the point where he’s going to advocate for it,” Emmer said of Trump’s crypto stance and the about-face he’s done in recent months. 

As for Kamala Harris? “She doesn’t know what she’s talking about,” he said. 

Keep an eye on Blockworks.co for a full recap of our conversation with Emmer. 

Tune in here to watch our livestream of Permissionless content. It’s not too late to buy a ticket either, come see us at registration.

— Casey Wagner

How will the asset management sphere adapt to the growing prominence of digital assets?

Jeff John Roberts of Fortune will be interviewing Coinbase’s President of Asset Management Sebastien Bea at Permissionless to explore this multitrillion-dollar question.

• Fed minutes released today from last month’s meeting showed that all committee members supported an interest rate cut. A “substantial majority” were in favor of a 50-basis point cut while some voted for 25bps. 

• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow report showed that it expects a 3.2% increase in GDP for the third quarter. 

• We’re on the ground in Salt Lake City at Permissionless! If you’re here, be sure to say hi to Ben, Casey and Felix.