Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Why Bloomberg Intelligence’s crypto ETF odds jibes with what we’ve heard.

• How crypto markets are reacting to tariff developments. And what’s next?

Is a litecoin ETF the 2025 frontrunner?

The apps you bet on the Super Bowl with don’t offer odds on which crypto ETFs will hit the market in 2025.

For that, many look to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — a duo that offered a credible voice for X users in the lead-up to bitcoin and ether ETF approvals last year. 

A litecoin ETF is the frontrunner to launch this year, they say — at 90%. 

Outside of LTC products, Seyffart and Balchunas are giving 75% odds for a dogecoin ETF approval in 2025. There is then a slight drop to 70% and 65% odds for solana and XRP ETFs, respectively. 

Some agree. But their followers aren’t afraid to share when they don’t. 

For what it’s worth, some of the Bloomberg guys’ opinions match what we’ve been hearing as well.

I’ve written about these filings in spurts, but let me remind you of the thinking here.

The SEC has not previously labeled LTC and DOGE as securities — a good thing if they want to end up in this type of ETF wrapper. The agency has also acknowledged the litecoin filings. That’s another good sign, because we’ve seen (before getting to that point) fund managers withdraw products the SEC isn’t ready to consider.

Seyffart is expecting further acknowledgements this week.

As for the assets Balchunas and Seyffart think have a slightly lower probability of ending up in a US ETF this year, SOL was deemed a security in several SEC lawsuits. And the regulator filed an appeal last month in its case against Ripple.

Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty said in a January X post that he expects the “rehash of already failed arguments” to likely be “abandoned by the next administration.”

Even so, Bitwise general counsel Katherine Dowling warned of the SEC’s “purgatorial state” until agency chair nominee Paul Atkins is confirmed. And she noted court cases don’t just go away overnight — “nor should they.”

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce confirmed that last week: “Determining how best to disentangle all these strands, including ongoing litigation, will take time.”

Dowling added that DOGE is not among the “dolphins in the fish nets” — alluding to the assets with an unclear securities status (due to SEC claims).

So why aren’t the LTC and DOGE ETF odds at 100%? Well almost nothing is a sure thing (you know the death and taxes mantra).

ETF.com’s Sumit Roy told me last month “the SEC remains cautious about market manipulation and custody risks, which apply to all crypto ETFs.”

The SEC’s 240-day clock to rule on the litecoin proposals runs out in early October. Mark your calendars.

— Ben Strack

Six weeks out from DAS NYC, and the stakes have never been higher.

How are fund managers positioning? What’s the real institutional play on ETFs, onchain finance, and global markets?

At DAS NYC, you’ll hear directly from the firms building their strategies around this:

• Franklin Templeton on tokenization and the next phase of asset management.

• Morgan Stanley Investment Management on how institutions are positioning in emerging markets.

• Galaxy Digital on the investment landscape and how smart money is allocating.

If you’re coming, bring your team. Group passes are 25% off for 10+ people — but only until Feb. 14. Smaller groups (4-9) still save 15%.

📅 March 18-20 | NYC

BTC’s price by 2 pm ET after it had risen above $98,000. Overall, the asset was down 2% from 24 hours prior.

The asset has seen positive February returns in nine of the last 10 years. But BTC’s performance so far this month, according to CoinGlass data: -6.6% 

After implementing 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports Monday, Donald Trump was expected to follow that up with reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners. 

Bitcoin dipped to around $95,000 around the steel/aluminum tariff news, before rebounding back above $98,000 early Tuesday.

“This rapid recovery underscores the growing maturity and stability of digital assets, even in the face of external economic shocks,” 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena said in an email.

During the Canada-Mexico tariff announcement the weekend prior, he noted, crypto prices dropped about 5-10% further than yesterday’s levels — indicating “market confidence has strengthened.”

Indeed, Hargreaves Lansdown senior equity analyst Matt Britzman said in a Tuesday morning ET note how US markets “put on a strong show” late yesterday. Still, the tariffs had investors “bracing for impact, with futures slipping lower this morning,” he noted.

History suggests tariff threat-fueled trade war fears often pass as quickly as they form, Britzman added. 

“But this time, the smart money isn’t so sure; currency, bond and commodity traders are hedging their bets, sending the dollar, Treasury yields and gold climbing as tensions heat up,” he explained.

LMAX Group currency strategist Joel Kruger argued that the story is more about the market getting reacquainted with Trump’s tactics than any material risk associated with extreme tariff measures. 

He told me: “While there could be short-term volatility on new announcements, we don’t see this risk causing any major shakeups from here on and expect crypto assets to continue to be well supported by medium and longer-term players looking to build exposure into dips.”

— Ben Strack

• ETH was trading around $2,610 at 2 pm ET — a nearly 2% drop from yesterday at that time.

• With all the talk about crypto ETFs, one more note: A Monday NYSE filing indicates Grayscale Investments’ plan to launch a Cardano Trust. We’ll see if other US asset managers follow suit.

• Did you miss Casey the last couple days? She’ll be back tomorrow.