Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• “Trump put” or “Fed put,” investors appear to be banking on some relief from either the White House or the central bank.

• How the Senate’s vote to overturn the DeFi broker rule is a “hopeful sign” for more action.

• We’ll be watching Friday’s White House crypto summit even more closely after Howard Lutnick’s reported comments.

What’s the strike price on Trump’s put? 

After wiping out the last of their “Trump bump” gains, US equities were surprisingly calm Wednesday following their tariff-fueled selloff earlier in the week. 

Given today’s mild gains come after a particularly spirited address from President Trump last night, during which he doubled down in defense of his trade policies, I’m betting investors are expecting the powers that be to step in. 

Whether this comes in the form of a “Fed put” or a “Trump put” is anyone’s guess. To be fair, investors probably don’t care which, as long as stocks start to see some relief. 

To be clear, Trump last night made no indication that he’s concerned about sliding stock prices. He reiterated that short-term pain is to be expected, but long-term gains will swiftly follow. If there’s a specific level the S&P 500 has to hit for the administration to start walking back its more aggressive economic policies, he didn’t seem concerned about reaching it. 

Tariffs “are about protecting the soul of our country,” Trump said Tuesday, adding that he is “OK” with “a little disturbance.” 

His cabinet, however, seems to be doing damage control. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg this afternoon that Trump is “listening to the offers from Mexico and Canada” and “thinking about trying to do something in the middle.” 

Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau today to talk tariffs. But Trump said in a Truth Social post that he’s not budging on the levies until there’s more action to stop the flow of fentanyl. The president did however grant a one-month exemption to Ford, General Motors and Stellantis for tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. 

This signaling was enough to calm markets — for now at least. The S&P 500 was trading 0.9% higher at 2 pm ET while the Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.1%. 

Like I said before, there’s an amount of S&P 500 pain Trump is willing to endure, we don’t know it. But analysts have guesses. 

Bank of America strategists say the so-called S&P 500 “strike price” for a “Trump put” — i.e. a policy change — is around 5,720. That’s where the index closed on Nov. 5. Yesterday, the index closed around 5,780, which just so happens to be the lowest close since Election Day. 

Others say anything greater than a 5% single-day loss would be enough to trigger a policy shift from Trump. 

DataTrek Research founder Nicolas Colas, however, says the real figure to watch is volatility. He says a VIX of 36 or above is usually enough to trigger a “Fed put,” but Trump’s volatility strike price could be higher or lower. 

Colas added that some mild relief in markets isn’t enough to convince him that this current bout of volatility is over. He doesn’t think we will see “tradeable lows” until the VIX hits 27+. We’re at around 23 today. 

The Fed’s next interest rate decision comes on March 19 (this coincides with the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in NYC, where Ben and I will both be. You should come too). 

Markets are still pricing in just a 5% chance central bankers will cut rates. They are more optimistic about a policy shift in May. 

Something tells me Trump has a higher pain threshold than Powell. Or, at the very least, he’s committed enough to seeing most of his trade policies through that it would take a lot for him to back down. 

For now, enjoy seeing stocks in the green. Who knows how long it will last.

— Casey Wagner

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This is the ISM Services PMI level for February, which came in higher than expected on Wednesday. Economic activity in the services sector has now expanded for eight straight months. 

Survey respondents, however, cautioned that tariffs will have “significant cost impact” on a variety of industries. 

Some believe the Senate’s vote to overturn the so-called DeFi broker rule is a win that goes beyond this specific issue.

If you need a refresher, the IRS revealed a rule in December that sought to force tax reporting requirements on crypto software providers — even those not acting as intermediaries.

Fast forward to the following month, when the overwhelmingly pro-crypto Congress was sworn in. Two days after Trump’s inauguration, Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Mike Carey floated a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution to reverse the rule.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in a floor speech that the IRS rule “puts at risk the privacy and security” of millions of Americans trading digital assets, according to an excerpt his press secretary sent me.

It could also give foreign companies, which wouldn’t have to comply with such a rule, an advantage, he added.

The Senate’s final vote on the CRA: 70 yeas and 27 nays.

With many crypto-friendly lawmakers now on the Hill, this vote marked “the first moment to convert that sentiment into action,” Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith said on X. 

It’s “a hopeful sign,” she added, and “bodes well for the efforts to design and pass stablecoin and market structure legislation.”

Van Buren Capital general partner Scott Johnsson said on X last month that this vote would be a “heat check” on how Democrats could choose to vote on crypto-related issues going forward. 

Smith noted that 18 Democrats voted to repeal the rule. Johnsson’s takeaway was that “productive policy tailwinds got a big boost.”

Ron Hammond, Blockchain Associated’s government relations director, added in a response to Johnsson that the vote count was “insanely high” for a CRA.

To the point of being a positive sign for future laws, we heard from Cynthia Lummis last week that stablecoin legislation was the Senate Digital Asset Subcommittee’s top priority.

— Ben Strack

No Theories. Just Market Movers.

The biggest players in finance and crypto aren’t waiting for the next cycle to play out — they’re engineering it. Who’s taking the mic at DAS NYC?

• Miguel Morel (Arkham) – Onchain intelligence is rewriting the playbook. Here’s how.

• David Mercer (LMAX Group) – The real institutional flow into crypto (not the headlines).

• Keerthi Moudgal (Kinexys by JPMorgan) – The infrastructure that’s actually making TradFi-to-DeFi real.

• Leah Wald (Sol Strategies) – Navigating market swings like it’s second nature.

Less than 3 weeks to go to DAS NYC. The smartest money is already in. Are you?

Many in the US woke up Wednesday to bitcoin back above $90,000.

After Donald Trump mentioned five tokens in his Sunday post about a crypto reserve, prices soared. BTC included (despite confusion from some about why this wouldn’t be a BTC-only reserve).  

Bitcoin ascended to about $95,000 Sunday, but essentially lost all those gains Monday. It traded in the mid-80s for much of Tuesday. 

The early Wednesday surge wasn’t because Trump mentioned BTC in his address to Congress Tuesday night. He didn’t. 

Rather it came after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly said a bitcoin strategic reserve is “something the president’s interested in.” He added: “I think you’re going to see it executed on Friday.”

Lutnick, the ex-CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, previously noted that TradFi firms would go “headfirst” into bitcoin when the regulatory environment improves. 

Tokens outside of BTC could be treated “positively, but differently” than the largest crypto asset, he told The Pavlovic Today. I applaud the journalist who was able to chat with Lutnick about this. But I still take the comments with a grain of salt. 

It seems kind of noncommittal. Trump’s interested in it and Lutnick thinks it will happen. 

The best us onlookers can do is first see what the administration says at Friday’s crypto summit. Then go from there. 

Chief bitcoin bull Michael Saylor said he was invited to the event. CNBC asked him if he thought any assets not named bitcoin should be in a US crypto reserve?

His response: “I think if you’re looking out over the next 100 years trying to figure out how you capitalize a nation-state or a country, what you want is a digital commodity.”

That would be bitcoin. 

“But if you have a sovereign wealth fund, then I think it’s well within the rights of the leader of the nation to decide to put proprietary assets, securities, tokens and the like into it,” Saylor added.

Trump’s executive order gives the Working Group until late July to make policy recommendations, including about a “national digital asset stockpile.” So don’t expect to know everything on Friday.

— Ben Strack

• The Fed’s latest Beige Book indicated that economic activity rose “slightly” since mid-January. This is a downgrade from the last report, which stated that activity was up "slightly to moderately” in November and December. 

• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model further lowered its Q1 GDP estimate yesterday to -2.8%, down from its Feb. 28th projection of -1.5%. 

• China premier Li Qiang said the country would keep its economic growth goal at 5% even as the trade war continues.