Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• After Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris, Ben revisits the president-elect’s crypto pledges.

• The FOMC meeting was pushed for the election, but the outcome shouldn’t impact its rate decision.

• Congress has some newbies headed to the Hill in January, and many have the crypto industry to thank.

Revisiting Trump’s crypto promises after his election win

There was a lot of election uncertainty a day ago. Now there isn’t. 

Donald Trump — a man who has promised to support the crypto industry — is set to return to the White House in January. Bitcoin hit a new record high as a result.

The now-president-elect’s pledges in recent months included firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, supporting bitcoin mining in America and halting government bitcoin sales.

Beyond Trump, more members of Congress are expected to support the space than ever before. There were so far 257 pro-crypto House candidates elected (compared to 115 with an anti-crypto stance), according to nonprofit Stand With Crypto’s rankings. In the Senate, the crypto-friendly winners outpace those viewing the industry negatively, 16 to 12.

While Republicans gained control of the Senate, the House was still up for grabs as of midday Wednesday. 

“With the likely Republican sweep, the obstacles for fulfilling [Trump’s] promises will come down to three factors: order of importance in the grand scheme of politics, how sound the policy proposed is, and the personnel hired within the White House and relative agencies,” Blockchain Association government relations director Ron Hammond told me.

FalconX’s David Lawant and Kaitlin Gately said in a Wednesday note that stablecoin legislation is “likely the lowest-hanging fruit.” They also highlighted the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act, which still needs to get through the Senate after the House passed it in May with bipartisan support. 

CoinShares research head James Butterfill labeled the prospect of the BITCOIN Act — which would establish a US strategic bitcoin reserve — a “key focus.”

Though most of the long-term problems facing the crypto industry will need a legislative solution, Trump can take some actions in the short term, Hammond explained.

“The most immediate: the debanking issue plaguing the industry and course-correcting the hostile approach the banking regulators have taken under the Biden Administration,” he argued. 

Speaking of regulators, many are keeping an eye on who Trump could select to replace Gensler as SEC chair — and when.

Trump seemed surprised by the Bitcoin 2024 conference crowd’s raucous applause when he said he’d fire Gary. And we know Trump loves big-crowd love. 

Hammond told me last month he expected Trump, if elected, to replace Gensler quickly (in January or February). Lawant and Gately pondered whether Trump could select either Hester Peirce or Mark Uyeda (both existing SEC commissioners) to lead the agency; we’ll simply have to wait and see.

One other action to watch out for, the FalconX pros pointed out, will be the crypto-focused advisory council Trump mentioned in July — “tasked with designing transparent regulatory guidance for the industry within the first 100 days of the new administration.”  

Professional Capital Management founder Anthony Pompliano told CNBC on Wednesday morning that while he doesn’t expect Trump to do everything he said he would while on the campaign trail, fulfilling some of the promises would suffice. 

Creating a strategic bitcoin reserve, for example, would be a “huge tailwind” that would spur “global game theory,” he explained. 

Former SEC senior counsel Ashley Ebersole told me in August that a presidential pro-crypto approach could be as simple as “White House silence” paired with stacking agencies with crypto-forward leaders.

I was reminded of that when Pompliano added: “If he’s going to protect [bitcoin] and not be abrasive, that’s a win.”

— Ben Strack

The number of shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) that investors traded Wednesday, as of 2 pm ET, according to Yahoo Finance data. This was already approaching triple the ETF’s average daily trading volume of roughly 28 million shares. 

In dollars, those volumes had so far amounted to about $3 billion. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas noted that about $1 billion of that came in the 20 minutes after the market opened.

When IBIT trading volumes peaked at 107 million shares on March 5, the ETF saw $788 million of net inflows. We’ll know soon enough how much investor capital the BlackRock fund welcomed on Wednesday.

The November FOMC meeting begins today. Committee members are overwhelmingly expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut. 

This morning’s election results came too late to impact this month’s decision, analysts say. But the potential Republican sweep and resulting market moves leave December’s outcome less certain. 

Fed funds futures markets were pricing in a 99.2% likelihood that the committee announces a 25bps cut tomorrow, per CME Group data. Odds of an additional 25bps cut in December are now at 67%. 

Donald Trump’s victory could impact the Fed’s leadership and mission. Trump’s planned tax cuts and tariff increases, which he promised on the campaign trail, could, by some economist’s estimates, increase inflation and the federal deficit. 

Plus, Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, giving Trump the opportunity to replace the central bank head. He has already said he will not reappoint Powell, and even mentioned wanting to fire him in 2018.

Trump will also have the opportunity to nominate a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January 2026. 

Keep your ears open during tomorrow’s press conference, as we expect Powell will face questions about the election and how it impacts future policy. Buckle up; this week is far from over.

— Casey Wagner

Some new faces will make their Congressional debuts come January, and several of them have the crypto industry to thank. 

Here are some of the incoming representatives and senators headed to Capitol Hill: 

John Curtis 

He’s not a new face to the Hill, but he will be making a move from the House to the Senate. Rep. John Curtis defeated Democratic challenger Caroline Gleich, 62% to 32%, to take Mitt Romney’s vacant Utah seat. 

The Defend American Jobs PAC (part of the Fairshake Super PAC trio) donated $1.9 million to Curtis’s campaign as of mid-October, making up almost 35% of the representative’s total contributions. Curtis co-sponsored the FIT21 and Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act bills in the House this session. 

Jim Justice 

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice on Tuesday defeated Democratic challenger Glenn Elliot to take West Virginia’s Senate seat, earning about 68% of the vote. 

Defend American Jobs spent more than $3 million supporting Justice. The Senator-elect said he supports a crypto market structure that allows for innovation while also protecting investors. 

Julie Johnson 

Johnson, a state representative in Texas, defeated Republican challenger Darrell Day to win a seat in the US House for Texas’s 32nd district. 

Protect Progress, the Democratic effort in the Fairshake Super PAC trio, spent almost $1 million supporting Johnson. Supportive of crypto during her campaign, Johnson wrote on her website that she hopes to “establish clear rules of the road for the crypto industry to build technology that benefits everyday Americans.”

— Casey Wagner

• Bitcoin rose above $75,300 at around 2 pm ET — roughly the same record level it hit hours prior. The asset’s price, at that time, was up about 8% over 24 hours.

• Trump was leading Kamala Harris in the popular vote Wednesday afternoon, at roughly 72 million votes to 67 million votes. If that holds, it would be the first time a Republican has won the national popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.  

• US stocks hit a record level Wednesday. Shares of Tesla (TSLA), the electric car maker founded by Trump supporter Elon Musk, was up 14% on the day, as of 2 pm ET.  

• Robinhood had its biggest-ever equities overnight session since launching its 24 Hour Market last year, according to a company spokesperson. Equities saw 11 times Robinhood’s typical overnight notional volume (from 8 pm to 4 am), the representative said — with Coinbase (COIN), IBIT, MicroStrategy (MSTR) and TSLA among the top 10.