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Good afternoon, folks (if you’re in the US)! The market vibes have changed, and Casey gets into the trade tension developments below. 

BTC was hovering around $102,600 at 2 pm ET — up 23% from a month ago. It’s now just 5% or so off the all-time high it set in January. A crypto company listed its shares on the Nasdaq today (and another plans to do the same later this week).

Oh and the SEC, as we speak, is hosting a tokenization chat with execs at various financial giants. But we’ll detail that tomorrow. In the meantime, here goes: 

Bring on the risk

After two days of largely mixed reports out of Geneva, China and the US have penned a tentative ceasefire that puts the brunt of its trade war on the backburner for now. 

Early this morning, China and the US issued a joint statement that tariffs on Chinese imports to the US will fall from 145% to 30%. China will lower levies on US imports from 125% to 10%. These changes will be in effect for 90 days. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday during an interview with CNBC that the goal for the US is to decouple from China when it comes to “strategic necessities.” 

He added: “We do not want a generalized decoupling from China.”

The update sent risk appetite soaring, with gold futures losing as much as 3.5% Monday and yields on 10-year Treasurys moving seven basis points higher. 

Bitcoin initially jumped on the news, gaining 1.7% early this morning. It breached $105,000 for the first time since January, when the largest crypto hit a new all-time high around $109,000.  BTC later pared some gains, hovering around $102,600 at 2 pm ET.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was trading 4% higher over the session. The S&P 500 had advanced 3% at that time. 

The meeting outcome is positive; or, at the very least, it’s not negative. We still have not reached a true deal, but Bessent said the talks were “productive.” Trump called it a “total reset.”

Bessent added that more talks are likely to start in the coming weeks and that it’s improbable for levies on Chinese imports to land below 10%. Still, markets and investors await more clarity. 

Plus, for US purchase managers ordering from China, 30% is still high — so they might not immediately ramp up inventories. Of course, there’s also the risk that tariffs land higher than 30% after the three-month pause. Once again, we’re back in limbo. 

Though a lasting trade war is certainly a headwind for bitcoin, a few tariff deals aren’t enough to spur BTC’s next breakout. At least according to Unity Wallet COO James Toledano.

He called today’s price action a “hollow rebound,” adding that it’s going to have to be bitcoin’s fundamentals that eventually drive prices higher. Movement on the regulatory front could be helpful, but as we covered last week, the main legislative efforts in the US are in political purgatory. 

Senators failed to advance the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act through a key procedural vote last week. While the measure is not dead yet, Democrat support is wavering. Two of the bill’s sponsors even said more work needs to be done on the text. 

I digress. I think news on the tariff front — at least with a Chinese deal specifically — will be quieter this week as officials return to their respective drawing boards. We all know, though, that it doesn’t take much to move this market. In a way, we’re always one Truth Social post away from a crash or a rally. 

Lucky for you, we’ll be in your inbox to break down all the moves as they unfold.

— Casey Wagner

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The percentage of Galaxy Digital shareholders that on Friday approved the company’s reorganization and domestication from the Cayman Islands to Delaware. This was needed as the company affirmed its intention to list its shares on the Nasdaq on May 16.

Speaking of listing on the Nasdaq, DeFi Technologies stock — under the ticker symbol DEFT — was set to begin trading on that exchange today. 

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Happy Monday! It’s already been a busy start to the week coming out of this past weekend’s Chinese/US meetings in Geneva. Coming up, we have the first post-“Liberation Day” CPI print and the start of President Trump’s Middle East tour. 

Here’s what we’re watching: 

• April’s CPI print will be released Tuesday. It’s the first inflation print to reflect post-tariff prices. Economists are expecting core CPI to tick up 0.3% month over month, compared with the 0.1% increase seen in March. Headline CPI is projected to decrease slightly year over year to 2.3% after coming in at 2.4% in March. A slowdown in consumer spending — likely spurred by higher recession fears — can push down inflation. But the question remains of how long lower prices will last, and if the labor market starts to take a hit. 

• Speaking of spending, April retail sales data comes out Wednesday. Economists anticipate a slowdown but do not project the numbers going negative. Headline retail sales are expected to have grown 0.1% higher over the month, vs. a 1.4% increase in March. Retail sales (excluding autos) are expected to come in 0.3% higher, compared with a 0.5% increase in March. 

• On the geopolitical front, investors might want to monitor a few important meetings. Today, military officials from India and Pakistan spoke over the phone. Reuters reported that the ceasefire should hold, for now, but India is prepared to escalate should Pakistan attack. On Thursday, Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy are scheduled to meet — a gathering Trump has been pushing. At this point, it looks like the meeting will happen, but a lot can change in the next few days. 

— Casey Wagner