Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• PCE may be declining ever so slightly, but the Fed won’t be happy about these labor market numbers. 

• How CME Group’s new planned crypto futures could impact ETF decisions. 

• Inflation data is ruling the headlines today, but we’ll unpack the other notable data drops of the week.

But first…

₿ig news

I entered the crypto world through the lens of macroeconomics, leading me down the rabbit hole of Bitcoin as a liferaft for some of the reckless woes that have eroded the purchasing power of many since the 2008 financial crisis. 

Further, the warping of financial markets into centralized tools for managing people and worsening wealth inequality transformed me from a devout Buffett-style value investor into the Bitcoin proponent I am today. 

Despite being an anti-maximalist of all forms and a participant in the trial-by-fire nature of the digital asset industry, Bitcoin still feels like a home for me in many ways. 

To that end, On the Margin was one of my favorite podcasts for years as it blended Bitcoin and macroeconomics into one fantastic show. I never missed an episode. In May 2024 I had the distinct pleasure of taking over the show from Mike Ippolito and leading the charge. 

As I have now also taken over Forward Guidance, Blockworks’ flagship macro show, it was time to re-think the value proposition of On the Margin.

That rethink led to the launch of Supply Shock, a Bitcoin-centric show hosted by Pete Rizzo, a true Bitcoin OG. I’m incredibly excited to see what Rizzo does with Supply Shock and highly recommend checking out the first episode where we chat and I pass on the proverbial torch!

— Felix Jauvin

DAS NYC is approaching.

VIP passes? Gone. The agenda? Live. The conversations shaping this market are happening — make sure you’re in the room.

Join some of the industry's top leaders: 

• Stani Kulechov (Avara) – The DeFi architect shaping the next wave of onchain finance.

• Robert Leshner (Superstate) – Tokenized assets aren’t theoretical — they’re here.

• Alex Thorn (Galaxy Digital) – The research that’s setting institutional strategies.

Less than 30 days to go.

📅 March 18-20 | NYC

The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge inched down just slightly in January, but we remain a ways off from its 2% target. 

Decreased consumer spending and sharp income growth complicate the central bank’s mandate, and throw a wrench in the works for those hoping it would be a quarter of economic expansion. 

Here’s a rundown of the latest personal consumer expenditures print and what it means for interest rates, markets and economic growth. 

The PCE index rose 2.5% annually in January, down from 2.6% in December. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, saw more of a decline, coming in at 2.6% in January vs. 2.9% in December. 

Personal income increased 0.9% month over month, led by private wages and salaries, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. Personal current transfer receipts, which reflect payments made without the exchange of services, also increased sharply, although this can be attributed to beginning-of-year Social Security payment adjustments. 

Consumer spending was down in January, coming in 0.2% lower than the month prior. The biggest sectors that saw a drop in spending were motor vehicles, household furnishings and recreational goods. 

This latest data significantly lowered expectations for Q1 GDP outlook. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was revised today to project the US economy will contract by 1.5% during the first three months of 2025. This would be the first contraction recorded since Q1 2022. 

On Feb. 19, the model had called for expansion at a rate of 2.3% during the first quarter of this year. 

In terms of market impact, stocks initially rose slightly on the mild decline in headline PCE, although quickly erased any gains as geopolitical tensions took center stage. President Trump’s Friday meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did little to assure the world that Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are going well. 

Fed funds futures markets are still calling for central bankers to hold interest rates at their next meeting on March 19, pricing in a 94% probability of this outcome. 

We’ll have to wait and see how Powell is thinking about the long-term outlook. On the one hand, it’s encouraging to see headline inflation dipping — even if only slightly — but we can’t imagine he’s too satisfied with the current labor market situation. 

Okay, that’s enough doom and gloom for a Friday afternoon. Enjoy your weekend, FG readers, the economic data will still be here on Monday.

— Casey Wagner

The allocation range BlackRock previously said was “reasonable” for BTC exposure. Now, the firm has executed on that (via its IBIT ETF) within its “Target Allocation with Alternatives” model portfolios, a spokesperson confirmed to Blockworks.

These models — allocating to stocks, bonds and liquid alts — represent a fraction of the asset manager’s larger flagship Target Allocation portfolios.

“The addition of IBIT to these portfolios as a diversifier are in line with the investment objectives of this model, as Target Allocation with Alternatives portfolios are designed for investors with a higher risk budget and growth target," the rep said in an email.

Solana futures are coming March 17, pending regulatory review. 

For real this time.  

When CME Group’s announcement came through, I made sure to triple-check its validity. 

If you recall last month, a beta page from CME Group’s website surfaced; a header on top read, “Introducing SOL and XRP futures.” That was released “in error,” a spokesperson clarified at the time; no decision had been made on such products.

Now, though, the derivatives marketplace is officially moving ahead with cash-settled SOL futures — to be available via a micro-sized contract (25 SOL), and a larger one (500 SOL).

Why does this matter, exactly?

The thought is this type of product gives sophisticated investors (i.e. institutions and active traders) a better way to manage volatility within a growing market. Those unable to hold SOL directly would be able to gain access via a regulated product.

But beyond that, it extends a tool already available for bitcoin and ether to another asset — possibly setting the stage for US solana ETFs. 

CME Group launched bitcoin futures and ether futures in 2017 and 2021, respectively. These helped institutionalize crypto as an asset class prior to the US spot bitcoin and ether ETF launches last year.

Industry watchers have questioned the timeline around further spot crypto ETF approvals by the SEC, pointing out the agency has previously wanted to first see a regulated futures market. 

The ETF Store president Nate Geraci wrote this morning on X that the planned solana futures launch “definitely bodes well for SOL ETF prospects.”

As for whether XRP futures are next (given the aforementioned beta page), a CME spokesperson told me today: “We do not comment on our product pipeline.”

In addition to SOL futures, the rep added, the company is focused on growing its existing BTC and ETH derivatives suite. 

Year to date, average daily volume for CME’s BTC and ETH futures/options is 202,000 contracts — up 73% from a year ago. Average open interest (243,600 contracts) has jumped 55% year over year.

— Ben Strack

Happy Friday! 

As Cem Karson said on today’s Roundup episode of the Forward Guidance podcast (out now, listen here), the market leads the economy, and that’s exactly what we saw this week. Recessions are led by market decline, he added, so if you’re wondering if we might see a broad decline in economic activity, take a look at equities. 

Now, we already know it was a tough week for markets. Here’s a recap of what we saw on the economic data front, and spoiler, it’s not too pretty:

• New home sales were down more than 10% in January, coming in lower than expected, data from the Census Bureau showed Wednesday. Analysts attribute the uptick to severe winter weather across the country and elevated mortgage rates. 

• Initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 22 came in at 242,000, a 22,000 increase from the week prior and the largest number we’ve seen so far in 2025. The figure is starting to reflect federal agency and private sector layoffs. First time filers in Washington DC hit the highest level seen in almost two years. 

• On a better note, real GDP increased at an unrevised 2.3% annual rate during the final quarter of 2024, the Commerce Department said Thursday. This is in line with projections but a decline from Q3, during which real GDP increased 3.1% annually.

— Casey Wagner