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Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s abbreviated edition:

• Crypto ETF filings continue rolling in. Ben rounds up the latest planned products issuers have dreamed up for segment investors.

• Brazil may be considering a strategic bitcoin reserve. Here’s how the proposal differs from its USA counterpart.

Planned crypto ETF fleet grows after options milestone

First came the SEC’s approval of US spot bitcoin ETFs in January. Then, ether fund launches in July. 

In November alone, crypto-friendly Donald Trump (and a slew of segment-friendly congressional candidates) won their races for office. Options on the BTC ETFs started trading and Gary Gensler said he would step down from his SEC chair post in January. 

These events have contributed to momentum around even more crypto ETF filings, and it might not slow down anytime soon. Let’s review the latest:

Bitwise on Tuesday filed an S-1 for an ETF that would hold both bitcoin and ether. That comes nearly half a year after Hashdex plotted a similar product. And about two weeks after Bitwise revealed plans to convert its index fund (holding 10 crypto assets) to an ETF. 

Also over the past week, ETF issuer First Trust revealed its intention to launch bitcoin-focused defined-outcome (aka buffer) funds that protect against losses while capping upside.

Around the same time as the First Trust filings, Calamos Investments filed for 14 bitcoin buffer ETFs and Innovator ETFs shared its own plans for various BTC-related offerings.

And we shouldn’t forget Grayscale’s amended ETF filing for a Bitcoin Covered Call ETF that came when options on the US spot bitcoin ETFs got final regulatory approval.

These filings are not exactly surprising. In fact, The ETF Store president Nate Geraci noted in a September X post to expect a “flurry” of new ETF plans once options trading on spot BTC funds started. He specifically predicted buffer and covered call strategies, among others.  

Fast forward, and Geraci argued Monday that bitcoin volatility is “a huge feature, not a bug in context of portfolio construction.”

“But ETF issuers will offer every strategy under the sun to try [and] minimize that vol,” he added.

Beyond the more complex planned funds that would offer differentiated exposure to bitcoin, firms continue trying to break new ground in terms of which crypto assets can be held directly in the ETF wrapper.   

Following up on Bitwise’s solana ETF plans last week, WisdomTree — a fund group with more than $100 billion assets under management — registered with the state of Delaware for an XRP fund. It appears to have joined Bitwise, 21Shares and Canary Capital in trying to launch such an ETF.

While the SEC could mull the solana and XRP ETF filings for 240 days, we may see the bitcoin ETFs that use options strategies start trading much sooner.

— Ben Strack

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As US politicians renew their push to create a national bitcoin reserve, one Brazilian congressman has put forward a similar proposal. 

Eros Biondini on Monday proposed establishing a bitcoin sovereign strategic reserve, known as ResBit. The plan calls for the country’s central bank to gradually acquire bitcoin until the cryptocurrency makes up 5% of Brazil’s national reserves, according to local reports.  

With Donald Trump headed back to the White House, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis — who introduced legislation to form a strategic bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville last summer — said she plans to reintroduce her bill. 

“It’s gaining momentum,” Lummis told the Washington Examiner earlier this week. “The group that we need to focus on it is here on Capitol Hill — the members of the House and Senate.”

Lummis’s bill suggests the Treasury purchase 1 million bitcoins over a five-year period, to be held for a minimum of 20 years. 

Biondini’s bill cites the work of other countries — like the US and El Salvador — that have been “adopting innovative strategies to integrate cryptocurrencies to national financial management” in recent years, per a translated copy of the bill text. 

While Lummis has touted the bitcoin reserve as a solution to the growing national deficit, the proposal in Brazil claims a bitcoin investment would help establish financial sovereignty and increase economic development in the region. 

The details of the plans are similar, though. Both bills specify that the bitcoin should be held in cold storage and transactions must be publicly reported. Brazil’s proposal, however, does not specify a point in time when the bitcoin could be sold. 

Even with Trump and his new pro-bitcoin views on Lummis’s side, I think the US is a long way from getting this bill signed into law. But stranger things have happened. 

Polymarket odds on Tuesday showed a 25% chance Trump announces a bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. 

— Casey Wagner