Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Markets (and some members of Trump’s team, apparently) await new tariff announcements.

• Takeaways from Circle’s IPO plan.

• Options-based bitcoin ETFs proliferate. And we have another index fund filing.

Trump gears up to unveil ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs 

President Trump is slated to reveal his long-promised reciprocal tariff policies at 4 pm ET from the White House Rose Garden. 

Just hours from the event, we still know very little. Trump and his team were working on the plans late into Tuesday evening, according to people familiar. 

We do know, though, that Trump in the past has floated imposing additional levies on copper, lumber and pharmaceuticals. I wrote yesterday about why I’m personally most interested in hearing about a copper tariff — the US currently imports about 50% of the amount we use, and the metal is in just about everything. 

Trump has also said he plans to slap tariffs greater than or equal to all foreign levies placed on goods other countries import from the US. 

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday that whatever is announced on Wednesday afternoon will go into effect “immediately.” 

In addition to the new policies, Trump’s 25% tariff on imported cars will start just after midnight tonight. Imported auto parts will be taxed at the same rate starting in May. S&P Global estimates that roughly 46% of cars sold in the US in 2024 were imported. 

Ahead of the auto tariffs, General Motors on Tuesday announced that its Q1 sales were more than 16% higher than last year, a signal Americans may be planning their car purchases before prices increase. 

It’s worth noting that while the discourse around tariffs has unsurprisingly revolved around the potential impact on consumer prices, the policies could also have a significant effect on growth. 

Goldman Sachs this week upped its odds of a recession in the next year from 20% to 35%. Analysts said tariffs are expected to lead to a slowdown in business expansion and investments. 

To be fair, the Trump administration has admitted that tariff policies are going to cause some “short-term pain.” But they still maintain that these levies are the way to bring back domestic manufacturing. Those against the plan argue that it could take years for businesses to bring operations back onshore and the impact on consumer spending may have long-term effects on the economy. 

Liberation Day comes after Republicans held on to two open Florida House seats in Tuesday’s special elections, although the party won with a much narrower margin than they had in November. This could present some challenges for the GOP come midterms. 

As Americans (and the world) await what Trump will say, several lawmakers on Capitol Hill are already playing defense. Former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell has joined Democrat Sen. Tim Kaine’s efforts to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada. 

In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump called McConnell and other Republicans who have said they’ll back Kaine’s resolution “disloyal.” The president added that those supporting the effort to block his Canadian tariffs are “playing with the lives of the American people” as the levies are aimed at curbing fentanyl trafficking. 

Alongside McConnell are fellow Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul. We’ll be watching for any additional Congressional efforts to block tariffs after Trump’s announcement today. 

We hope you’re well rested. It’s going to be a long evening. 

— Casey Wagner

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This is the amount of jobs added to private payrolls in March. 

The figure shows an increase from February's upwardly revised 84,000 job adds and beats consensus expectations for March, which were 120,000.

We already revisited the Dan Tapiero quote about an imminent “crypto IPO, M&A, SPAC boom.” And I wrote about the possible “feeding frenzy” coming on the M&A side. 

Then late yesterday, Circle, the issuer of stablecoin USDC, laid out plans for an IPO. 

"The confluence of traditional financial infrastructure and blockchain innovation, as exemplified by companies like Circle, presents compelling opportunities for institutional investors,” Offchain Labs’ Ira Auerbach said in a statement. 

It seems optimism around stablecoin growth (and the potential for legislation) would signal high interest in Circle. Not to mention the potential for the broader tokenization segment.

But it’s worth noting that while Circle’s 2024 revenue was $1.7 billion, it paid $908 million in distribution costs to Coinbase. 

Circle’s net income for last year was $156 million. Its competitor Tether, meanwhile, reported a profit of $13 billion in 2024. 

Looking at a publicly traded crypto company, Coinbase’s 2024 net income was $2.6 billion (on $6.6 billion in revenue). Meaning Circle’s net profit margin was nearly five times less than Coinbase’s, Dom Kwok pointed out on X.

Kwok, a former analyst at Blackstone and Goldman Sachs, added: “If the Fed lowers rates later this year (as expected), Circle's metrics will only weaken further.” 

After all, the S-1 notes that 99% of Circle’s revenues come from reserve interest income, which are sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates.

Circle explains in the filing that the emergence of yield-bearing digital assets “represents an additional source of competition, particularly in light of the current high interest rate environment.”

Hence, probably, why Circle acquired tokenized money market fund issuer Hashnote to help market participants more easily move between cash and yield.

There will be plenty to monitor here as to when we could see Circle stock on the New York Stock Exchange, and at what valuation. Stay tuned.

— Ben Strack

There was talk at last week’s Exchange ETF conference around more crypto products coming as different types of investors enter the market.  

Grayscale Investments is among those expanding its product lineup, introducing a Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (BTCC) and a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BPI).

The strategies “may be considered as an alternative income stream that’s less correlated to traditional income-oriented investments,” the firm notes. They aim to distribute income monthly.

BTCC buys and sells call and put option contracts that utilize a bitcoin ETP (i.e. its GBTC and BTC trusts) as the reference asset. Its sale of call options may limit the fund’s gains when those bitcoin ETPs see share price increases.

As for BPI, the ETF writes calls targeting so-called out-of-the-money strike prices (those higher than bitcoin’s spot price). It’s meant to balance upside participation and income generation.

It was clear that options on bitcoin ETFs — letting institutional investors better manage BTC exposures in different market conditions — marked a new chapter for the asset class. Issuers have debuted funds utilizing options to offer downside protection, for example. 

Another new chapter? Crypto index funds. 

A Grayscale registration statement filed Monday is another step toward the firm trying to uplist its Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund to an ETF (after NYSE Arca’s 19b-4 last year). That fund, currently trading on OTC Markets, holds bitcoin, ether, solana, XRP and cardano. 

Hashdex, Bitwise and others are also looking to offer index ETFs that go beyond BTC and ETH exposure. We’ll find out in the coming months what the SEC has to say about that.

— Ben Strack

• The House Financial Services Committee today gathered to markup the STABLE Act, a stablecoin bill introduced by Republican Reps. Steil and Hill. The legislation is similar to the recently advanced GENIUS Act in the Senate, but gives states less room to deviate from federal standards. 

• Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith said Tuesday she’ll be resigning from her role at the crypto lobbying group in May. Smith will join the newly formed Solana Policy Institute as its president.