Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• The crypto summit is behind us. Here’s what happened. Or didn’t happen.

• Bitcoin’s short-term outlook as recession concerns rock the stock market.

• Inflation metrics to watch ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision. 

Summit without substance?

The White House crypto summit — not to be confused with the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit — dominated headlines on Friday. But as the dust settled over the weekend, crypto investors were left wondering what, if anything, was actually accomplished. 

The summit was closed-door, save for a 20-minute televised address from Trump and his top lieutenants. 

A quick note: The public portion of the afternoon inexplicably started with the unveiling of the 2026 World Cup trophy and remarks from FIFA president Gianni Infantino. We were just as confused as some of the executives in the room looked.

Trump later highlighted how different his approach to crypto is from his predecessor. 

“My administration also is working to end the federal bureaucracy's war on crypto, which was really going on pretty wildly during Biden,” Trump said. 

Industry executives in attendance included Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, Michael Saylor of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and the Winklevoss twins (who crypto czar David Sacks admittedly cannot tell apart. Join the club.). 

Those hoping for an executive order, a bill draft, or a major announcement from the CFTC or SEC were disappointed. Industry members who attended the meeting were diplomatic in expressing their gratitude to the president for the invitation, but were light on any details of concrete plans. Perhaps because none were made. 

Armstrong told reporters Friday afternoon that he feels “more confident” investing in Coinbase’s US business. He added that the company will be adding 1,000 stateside positions. 

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who introduced a bill last year to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, was notably absent from the summit. She posted on X that she was under the weather. Sacks on Friday reiterated that the Trump team is looking for budget-neutral (i.e., without taxpayer money) ways to gain exposure to bitcoin. But, following Trump’s executive order Thursday night, no more details about the strategic bitcoin reserve were revealed. 

Even though apparently little happened at the White House on Friday, the president gathering industry execs is a major development. The Winklevoss twins apparently commented at the summit that just a year ago, they’d have sooner expected to be in jail than be a White House guest. 

Rumor has it that there’s another closed-door meeting at the White House tomorrow, this one on the strategic bitcoin reserve. This gathering will not include industry executives and investors, people familiar with the matter told me. 

The industry is also expecting more executive orders from the president, hopefully on topics like debanking the crypto industry. I’m being told any chatter about an EO declaring crypto capital gains tax-free are unsubstantiated rumors.

— Casey Wagner

The potential aggregate offering price of Strategy’s latest at-the-market program. It is set to issue and sell shares of its 8% series A perpetual strike preferred stock.

The company intends to use net proceeds to buy…you guessed it…more bitcoin. And for working capital.

Strategy did not purchase any bitcoin last week. It owns 499,096 BTC — bought for an average price of $66,357 per coin.

I’d say it’s a good time for another Monday market check-in after bitcoin retreated below $80,000.

BTC’s price at 2:10 pm ET: $78,100 (a 3% drop in 24 hours). Investors took $740 million out of the US spot bitcoin ETFs from March 3-7, marking the category’s fourth straight week of net outflows.

Some of the price dip could be attributed to the lack of new information at Friday’s crypto summit (as Casey alluded to above). 

LMAX Digital’s Joel Kruger argued that current crypto market weakness is “more about a sell-the-news effect and overdue technical correction than anything else.”  

But there’s more at play, of course, as uncertainty around the US economy’s outlook spurs a risk-off wave.

As YouHodler markets chief Ruslan Lienkha points out: Last year showed that bitcoin's consolidation phase can last several months (even half a year) before the next upward move. 

But, he argued, the current market environment presents more complexities. 

“Pessimism has prevailed in the US stock market, and concerns about a potential recession in the US are growing,” Lienkha said in an email. “Given these factors, the current consolidation phase could evolve into a medium-term bearish market.”

Indeed, Donald Trump talked of a “period of transition” when asked about a possible recession. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were down 2.8% and 4.3% on the day, respectively, as of 2:10 pm ET. 

Still, Kruger believes bitcoin is getting closer to finding a bottom before a recovery in Q2. And the asset “should be exceptionally well-supported” at the previous resistance area between $69,000 to $74,000.

Kruger previously told me BTC’s store-of-value narrative could help it break away from “misleading” correlations to traditional risk assets.

But Lienkha notes: “While bitcoin has the potential to evolve into a hedging asset in the future, it is currently perceived by investors as a high-risk asset, often reacting to broader market sentiment even more strongly than traditional financial markets.”

So we’ll be watching the stock market. 

After the European Central Bank cut rates for a sixth time last week, industry watchers also continue to keep an eye on how economic data (keep scrolling) could impact the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. And the ripple effect of that.

— Ben Strack

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Happy Monday! 

It’s the last week before FOMC members gather to make a decision on interest rates. Markets are all but certain the Fed will opt to extend its pause. We’ll be watching key inflation metrics nonetheless. 

Here’s what’s on tap: 

• On Wednesday we’ll get the latest CPI print, which is expected to show prices have increased 2.9% year over year and 0.3% from the prior month. This monthly figure would be a decline from January, which showed a 0.5% increase from December. 

• The Producers Price Index and initial jobless claims will both come out Thursday. Analysts expect that producer prices increased 0.3% from January to February — down from the 0.4% month-over-month increase in the previous print. Initial jobless claims are also projected to tick down slightly to 220,000 (from 221,000 during the week prior). 

• The deadline for Congress to pass a federal budget is Friday at midnight. House Republicans over the weekend unveiled a spending bill. Democrats argue the legislation undermines access to public services. A floor vote is expected Tuesday.

— Casey Wagner

• Ether dropped below $2,000 on Monday. It was hovering around $1,920 at 2:10 pm ET, down 24% from a week ago.

• The House Financial Services Committee has a hearing tomorrow on examining a framework for payment stablecoins and the consequences of a US CBDC.   

• Coinbase’s CFTC-regulated futures exchange plans to soon launch 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts in the US.