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Happy June, everyone! With a busy month ahead, Casey shares an update on Trump’s tariffs and the economic data to watch out for in the coming days.

A reminder, too, that the Forward Guidance team is monitoring Circle’s IPO, so expect more from Ben and Casey on that front. Let’s dive in:

Last weekend today

June has certainly started off with a bang, and we don’t expect things to slow down anytime soon. With lots of updates on the tariff front, Congress back from recess and an FOMC meeting on the horizon, it’s going to be a busy month. 

Focusing on tariffs, though, here’s where we currently stand: After last week’s court drama, certain tariffs (including Trump’s fentanyl-related levies against Canada, Mexico and China) will remain in place until at least June 9. 

To recap: The US Court of International Trade last Wednesday ruled that some of the Trump administration’s new trade policies are illegal. Within 24 hours, though, an appeals court issued a temporary pause on the ruling, allowing certain tariffs to continue while the appeals process plays out. The plaintiffs (a group of US businesses) have until June 5 to respond to the stay. 

Should the pause be reversed, the White House has already said it would seek a ruling from the Supreme Court for “emergency relief.” The appeal itself could also make it to the highest court, but that’s likely months down the line. 

The Trump administration on Monday appealed a separate ruling from a DC federal court that found Trump’s tariffs to be unlawful. This suit was brought by two children's toy companies. 

The administration said in April it would ink 90 trade deals in 90 days; that deadline (July 9) is quickly approaching. There’s also the separate 90-day pause on certain sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods Trump announced three weeks ago. 

That truce with China appears to be in jeopardy. In a Monday statement, China’s Ministry of Commerce responded to accusations from Trump that the country had violated the recently penned agreement. 

It was the US, Chinese officials said, that has taken steps that “seriously undermine” the truce. These include new AI chip export restrictions and the administration’s plans to revoke visas for Chinese students, they said. 

You may have read about the so-called “TACO trade,” named after the acronym Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined last month to describe the president’s constant tariff reversals. For those not familiar, it stands for “Trump always chickens out.” 

After escalating trade tensions with China rocked US markets Monday morning, some investors are expecting Trump to revise his policies tonight or tomorrow. A “TACO Tuesday,” if you will. 

Unsurprisingly, Trump is not a fan of the now-viral “TACO” meme. 

When a reporter asked Trump about the acronym during a press conference last week, Trump denied that he has “chickened out” in the past. 

"That's a nasty question," Trump added. 

The question now is: Does this discourse enrage Trump enough to impact his policy? Maybe. Trump said Friday that he’s doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum starting June 4. 

I’m also starting to wonder if and when we will creep into “boy who cried wolf” territory. If Trump keeps pausing and reversing and amending trade policies, will investors eventually stop taking him seriously? Could markets stop moving on every headline? 

I’m not sure. We’ll have to wait and see.

— Casey Wagner

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The number of Class A common stock shares that Circle plans to offer ahead of its listing on the New York Stock Exchange, according to a Monday filing. 

Last week, the stablecoin issuer said it intended to offer 24 million shares. Circle also changed its expected price per share range — from $24-26 to $27-28.

Happy Monday! It’s looking like we’ll have a busy start to the summer, and this week is no exception. 

Here’s what we’re watching: 

• We’ll get April’s factory orders report on Tuesday. New orders for manufactured goods in April are expected to have declined 3.2% from March, indicating that higher tariffs have deterred purchases. In March, factory orders surged 4.3% month over month. 

• The biggest data drop this week will be the May jobs report, out on Friday. The question of how tariffs are and will impact the labor market has been on everyone’s mind, including those of FOMC members. Analysts project the economy added 125,000 jobs last month, which would be a decline from April’s 177,000 positions added. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. These figures would help support the notion that while businesses are not engaging in mass layoffs, they also aren’t hiring. That’s likely because they, too, are waiting to see how trade policies shake out. 

• Initial jobless claims on Thursday will give us a preview ahead of May’s jobs report. Analysts expect the figure for the week ended May 31 to tick up slightly to 243,000 vs. 240,000 the week prior.

— Casey Wagner