Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• The market is resilient because the data has stayed in the Goldilocks range. 

• Objections to the so-called DeFi broker rule return to focus.

• There’s now another publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin.

Economic growth data says we’re on track for a soft landing

I wrote yesterday about how the market has generally remained pretty resilient despite recent bouts of volatility. 

Tariff concerns, geopolitical tensions, earnings season and inflation have all weighed on US equities at different points throughout 2025, but one tailwind has remained constant: economic growth is — at least for now — solid enough. 

Some economic data points are looking really strong. Manufacturing is on the rise with the most recent ISM manufacturing PMI and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey both coming in better than expected. 

January’s ISM services PMI came in a bit lower than December’s figure, but is still healthily above 50. Retail sales saw their expected January dip, but are also still in a Goldilocks range. 

On the labor front, non-farm payrolls were up solidly, and initial jobless claims ticked up only slightly in recent weeks. Unemployment has stabilized and wage growth has started to moderate. Our labor market is, as Powell said, “solid.” 

The Conference Board projects real US GDP to come in at 2.3% in 2025, a decline from 2.8% in 2024. Globally, the non-profit expects real GDP to show 3% growth for 2025. 

“While the US economy is set to start 2025 on strong footing after a year of surprisingly robust growth, a combination of proposed policies will likely weigh on growth and leave inflation elevated as the year progresses, resulting in a more patient policy stance from the Fed,” The Conference Board wrote in a statement earlier this month. 

So, what does all of this mean? I think it means the Fed just may be on track to achieve its coveted soft landing — that is if the data continues to reflect decent economic growth. 

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said a few weeks ago he’s still “optimistic” about a soft landing. 

Minutes from the FOMC’s most recent meeting (released today) show staff have concerns about the direction of federal policy. 

They “continued to note elevated uncertainty regarding the scope, timing and potential economic effects of possible changes to trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policies,” the minutes read. 

Trade and immigration specifically could impact progress being made on inflation reduction, some staff noted. 

Several participants also said it could be appropriate to pause or slow balance sheet runoff until Congress reaches a debt ceiling resolution. 

It sounds like the pause on interest rate cuts will continue in the near term, unless there are significant changes to economic conditions. 

“If labor market conditions deteriorated, economic activity faltered or inflation returned to 2% more quickly than anticipated,” committee members would consider easing monetary policy. 

Generally, the minutes reflect what we’ve known since Powell’s last press conference: Officials are on hold until inflation trends much lower. 

The economic data situation however remains the same. And again, unless we see major declines in growth, a soft landing is not out of the question.

— Casey Wagner

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How much headline inflation in the UK rose annually in January. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco gained 3.7% in the 12 months ended January. 

Similar to the US, which also posted a 3% annual inflation read last month, transportation and food costs were big drivers over the overall index across the pond.

The Blockchain Association has spoken again. Or, well, they’ve written another letter. 

From the advocacy group that last month brought you a “consensus position” on market structure policy comes a warning to lawmakers on Capitol Hill. 

The choices they have: act, or possibly “cripple DeFi innovation in this country altogether.”

If you don’t remember, there was a proposed rule — finalized under the Biden administration — that would expand the “broker” definition to include software that allows users to access DeFi protocols.

The Blockchain Association says this “inappropriately and unlawfully misclassifies technology infrastructure as intermediaries” — forcing software companies that never take custody of users’ assets to nonetheless collect (and report to the government) those users’ personal info and transaction details.

The Wednesday letter, addressed to Sens. John Thune and Chuck Schumer, as well as Reps. Mike Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries, calls for them to vote “yes” on Sen. Ted Cruz’s Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution and repeal the so-called DeFi broker rule.

Blockchain Association’s Kristin Smith reminded us how long this battle goes back:

The IRS then sought to implement this new definition in 2023. The agency, in June 2024, applied the rule to centralized intermediaries — leaving out reporting requirements for decentralized or non-custodial brokers. 

In December though, a second IRS rule sought to force tax reporting obligations onto crypto software providers that don’t act as intermediaries.

The effort by Cruz and Rep. Mike Carey to reverse it came two days after Trump’s inauguration.

Blockchain Association members are set to discuss the CRA resolution with Congressional offices in DC on Feb. 26, a group spokesperson said. It’s unclear when exactly a vote would take place.

The latest letter adds: “Policy decisions with such severe consequences should be made by Congress deliberately — not accidentally through ill-conceived midnight rulemaking.”

— Ben Strack

A bitcoin financial services company is now listed on the Nasdaq — joining a limited list of public players in the segment. 

Called Fold, the company revealed a combination with FTAC Emerald Acquisition Corp. last July in an effort to go public.

Then, in December, Fold closed a $20 million convertible note financing from ATW Partners. That was secured in part by the company’s bitcoin holdings (totaling roughly 1,000 BTC) as collateral and was set to mature three years after Fold became a public company. 

That brings us to today, when Fold shares were set to start trading on the Nasdaq after its deal with FTAC was approved. Founded in 2019, Fold lets customers accumulate BTC through its rewards program.

Among the top crypto predictions for 2025 were more crypto-related companies going public — joining Coinbase, Strategy and a bunch of miners.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said at the Ondo Summit earlier this month he expected such progress on that front by May or June. His firm has been waiting to list publicly in the US for four-plus years.

Shares of crypto wallet provider Exodus hit the NYSE American stock exchange in December. That company held 1,900 BTC and 2,660 ETH in its reserves at the time.

Dan Weiskopf, co-portfolio manager of the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK), said he counts about 20 blockchain-related companies at various stages of the US public listing process (or considering it).

A revamped SEC that has Hester Peirce leading a crypto task force should support an expected 2025 public listing boom, Weiskopf added.   

“Bitcoin price action will continue to be the focus of excitement,” he told me. “But behind the scenes people forget that the picks and axes are also an important way to capitalize on the innovation that is in front of us.”

— Ben Strack

• Ripple’s XRP token jumped more than 4% Wednesday following a post on Truth Social from President Trump about the so-called “Trump effect” on crypto prices. 

• Sanctioned entities around the world received $15.8 billion in cryptocurrency transfers in 2024, according to a new report from Chainalysis.

• US housing starts declined 9.8% in the 12 months ended January as builders continue to face pressures from high interest rates and tariffs.