Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• A pivotal milestone? A dud? Industry watchers weigh in on Trump’s Thursday night executive order.

• Casey recaps a Forward Guidance episode with upcoming DAS speaker Mohamed El-Erian.

• A roundup of this week’s tariff developments and economic data.

Reactions are mixed to BTC reserve, crypto stockpile 

So the US has officially moved to create that long-awaited strategic bitcoin reserve? And a separate stockpile for other crypto assets?

Yes, sort of.

Reactions are mixed as people read the fine print. First, some details you might already know:

Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and a Digital Asset Stockpile (DAS). The latter sports the same acronym as Blockworks’ upcoming event!

The SBR is to be capitalized with BTC forfeited to the Treasury department via criminal/civil proceedings. The US won’t sell bitcoin in this reserve. 

There’s not yet a plan to buy more BTC, leaving some disappointed. However, the EO notes that the Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce — currently Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick — can “develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin.” Essentially ones that won’t burden taxpayers. 

As for the DAS, that would include digital assets beyond bitcoin (none specifically named in the EO) also collected via forfeiture. The government would not buy more assets for this stockpile.

Many thought a bitcoin reserve announcement could be a catalyst to send BTC price to new heights. We did not see that immediately.

Compass Point analysts called the reserve and stockpile creation “a nonevent.” Based on price action around the reveal, they added, the market seems to agree with this view.

Bitcoin was trading around $88,200 at 2:10 pm ET — down nearly 2% from 24 hours prior. 

“Since these accounts are created by an EO, they can be undone by a future EO,” Compass Point’s Ed Groshans, Joe Flynn and Ed Engel wrote in a Friday note.

The elements making a reserve “durable” include legislation authorizing specific actions and appropriating funds for those actions, they argue. So they’re labeling the EO issuance “a dud” — at least for now.

“We will reassess the relevance of the SBR when Treasury and Commerce publish the strategies to acquire BTC.”  

Despite this reasonable take, many still consider this a monumental step in legitimizing BTC and the broader asset class. Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen encouraged people to “zoom out,” detailing the potential ripple effect. 

Falcon X research head David Lawant pointed to a few other positives. One being that Trump’s order clearly put BTC in a separate category while still acknowledging the value of other digital assets (remember Trump’s mention of ETH, SOL, XRP and ADA on Sunday?).

And the EO seems to shield the reserve from any backlash on taxpayer money usage, he added — noting the US could diversify its gold reserves into BTC and/or utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

It’s unclear how much more we’ll learn during/after today’s White House crypto summit (happening now).

Keep an eye on Blockworks’ X account (and mine and Casey’s) for updates. 

Otherwise, we plan to unpack that in Monday’s edition.

— Ben Strack

Don't get left behind. Subscribe to The Drop, Blockworks’ new newsletter covering crypto apps, art, gaming, memecoins and more.

This is the Atlanta Fed’s latest Q1 GDP forecast for annualized growth.

It’s slightly better than the March 3 forecast, which was -2.8%. Still, the model predicts the economy will contract during the first three months of the year.

Felix, who hosts the Forward Guidance podcast and contributes to this newsletter, had the pleasure of interviewing economist Mohamed El-Erian this morning after the labor report dropped. 

Be sure to check out the full interview on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. 

Here are some highlights from their conversation: 

The jobs report wasn’t that bad

We may have missed on job creation in January, but it wasn’t as big a miss as we’ve seen in the past, El-Erian said. Plus, hourly earnings came in as expected and unemployment increased marginally. 

If this report created any anxiety, he said, it should be around stagflation. Seeing an increase in people dropping out of the labor force could point to a decrease in both demand for and supply of workers. 

Companies are stocking up on imports 

Imports were up massively in the first month of the year as companies tried to stock up before tariffs hit. We’ve also seen some preemptive price increases. 

Companies that are cash-constrained are going to flood the market with their higher inventories. “That’s good for the consumer, bad for other producers,” El-Erian said. 

“If they're not cash constrained, they'll just store it and let the inventory go as they would have otherwise.” 

This all spells potential headwinds for future growth outlooks. 

Bitcoin won’t replace the dollar, but it will serve a purpose 

El-Erian sees bitcoin playing “a notable role” in the payments system, but it will not become the global reserve currency. Greater adoption is coming, he predicts, but the extent of which is dependent on regulation, both in the US and globally. 

Catch Mohamed in person at the Digital Asset Summit in New York on March 18-20. Get your ticket today, and use code FG200 for $200 off.

— Casey Wagner

No Theories. Just Market Movers.

The biggest players in finance and crypto aren’t waiting for the next cycle to play out — they’re engineering it. Who’s taking the mic at DAS NYC?

• Miguel Morel (Arkham) – Onchain intelligence is rewriting the playbook. Here’s how.

• David Mercer (LMAX Group) – The real institutional flow into crypto (not the headlines).

• Keerthi Moudgal (Kinexys by JPMorgan) – The infrastructure that’s actually making TradFi-to-DeFi real.

• Leah Wald (Sol Strategies) – Navigating market swings like it’s second nature.

Less than 3 weeks to go to DAS NYC. The smartest money is already in. Are you?

Happy Friday! Well, maybe not so happy, depending on your exposure to US stocks. But either way, we’re glad the weekend is near and markets are closing soon. 

It’s been a busy week of tariff announcements and economic data, both of which have weighed on equities. Here’s a recap: 

• The US trade deficit surged in January, data released Thursday showed. Imports rose 10% while exports increased by 1.2%, yielding a deficit totaling $131.4 billion. This is 34% higher than December’s deficit. It’s likely that US companies drastically increased imports before tariffs went into effect, accounting for a significant portion of the deficit. 

• The economy added 151,000 jobs last month, missing expectations of 170,000 new positions. The unemployment rate for the 12 months ended February inched higher to 4.1%. The report noted that federal employment declined by 10,000, although DOGE-related layoffs that happened later in the month are not fully reflected in this report. 

• Powell on Friday reiterated that central bankers are continuing to “monitor a variety of indicators” to determine next steps for monetary policy. He added they will “pay close attention” to the impact of tariffs on inflation, consumer spending and the labor market. These remarks, given at the US Monetary Policy Forum, were Powell’s last before the Fed enters its communications blackout before the March 18-19 meeting.

— Casey Wagner

• Don’t forget to follow our X accounts (Blockworks, Casey and Ben) for updates on the White House crypto summit that’s currently in progress.  

• Texas senators voted in support of a strategic bitcoin reserve Thursday, as that proposal now moves to the state’s House of Representatives. This came after similar efforts failed in Pennsylvania, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota.

• The Nasdaq stock market plans to offer 24-hour trading on weekdays amid “the global growth of investor demand for US equities,” exchange president Tal Cohen said in a LinkedIn post. Cohen noted this is “pending regulatory approval,” estimating a possible launch in the second half of 2026.