Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• FOMC members lower growth expectations for 2025, but still expect interest rates to end the year 50bps lower.

• A standing ovation to start DAS Day 2, and other bullish soundbites. 

Fed holds interest rates, indicates 50bps cut by end of year

Hello again from the Digital Asset Summit! 

We have a busy day of content in New York, but we’re also monitoring the situation in Washington, where the FOMC has just wrapped its March policy-setting meeting. As expected, central bankers left interest rates unchanged. 

What’s more interesting, though, is that most committee members are still expecting two 25-basis point rate cuts before the end of the year. 

It’s the first summary of economic projections released so far this year. Central bankers also lowered growth expectations for 2025. They expect real GDP in 2025 to increase by 1.7%, down from their December projection of 2.1%. They also increased their expectations for inflation, calling for PCE to hit 2.7% by the end of 2025. 

Mohamed El-Erian, one of our favorite Forward Guidance Podcast guests, spoke on the main stage this morning just ahead of the FOMC’s decision. 

The real pivot is going to come in the form of Fed speak, he said. 

Committee members are going to have to shift the narrative from “we’re cutting rates as a result of good news” (inflation falling) to “we’re cutting rates because of bad news” (growth prospects are declining). 

“They're going to have to somehow do this while not worrying people,” El-Erian said. 

Bitcoin and ether were trading higher on Wednesday, but pared some gains after the Fed’s decision was announced. Bitcoin was up 1.3% over the day at 2:30 pm ET while ether was trading 7% higher. Stocks responded well to the Fed’s decision, trading 0.6% and 0.9% higher, respectively, at that time. 

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model published a new Q1 2025 estimate Tuesday. The model is now calling for GDP to decline 1.8% in the first three months of the year, up from an estimate of -2.1% earlier in the month.

— Casey Wagner

Looking for a companion for your morning cup of coffee? Join Katherine Ross for the Empire newsletter — top crypto news and analysis delivered to your inbox weekdays at 8:45 am ET. Inform your day in crypto with Empire.

Blockworks is hiring a VP of sales! As our VP of sales, you’ll be directly responsible for the day-to-day operations and leadership of our media and subscription sales teams.

Remote US | $200k Base & OTE $300k

Apply today if you are:

• Crypto native

• Obsessed with sales

• Have run a team before

• Know how to sell into protocols

When Brad Garlinghouse shared on the Digital Asset Summit stage that the SEC plans to drop its appeal against Ripple, attendees in North Javits’ main auditorium gave a standing ovation.

It was one of the remaining major legal cases against a crypto player after the revamped securities regulator dismissed its suit against Coinbase and ended probes into other segment firms.

It was “a painful journey” spurred by an agency “trying to bully” companies in the segment, Garlinghouse noted. 

“As we said then…I really deeply believed that we were going to be on the right side of the law and on the right side of history,” he added.

BTC is up nearly 2% over the past 24 hours (~$84,250 at 2 pm ET). XRP surged 12% over the timeframe to $2.50.

Later on at DAS, ParaFi founder Ben Forman asked 10T Holdings CEO Dan Tapiero if the US’s change of administration (and what that could lead to within crypto) is overrated by the market. “A bit more sizzle than steak” perhaps?

Tapiero’s response was clear: “I think it’s the single-most important change in the history of crypto after the Satoshi white paper.”

Another way of putting it? “It’s been the most dramatic about-face that I can recall in any subject,” he said.

On people thinking bitcoin dropping to $80,000 means the bull market is over, Tapiero could only say: “It’s very funny.”

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted during a Tuesday afternoon panel that he remains “very confident” in his $200,000 bitcoin price prediction by the end of 2025.

He cited the “structural mismatch between demand and supply” before throwing out some numbers. There’s to be ~165,000 BTC mined this year. ETFs and companies bought 500,000 BTC that 250,000 BTC, respectively, last year — buying levels he expects to persist in 2025.

Then there are governments, who could purchase anywhere from zero to a million bitcoin.  

The way $200k doesn’t happen by December? "If we fall into a significant recession and the government doesn’t blink and forces us to go through an austerity period,” Hougan said. “Because that would keep pressure on risk assets.”

Eric Peters, who leads Coinbase Asset Management and One River Asset Management, said there is likely to be a FOMO aspect to consider as institutional investment committees weigh crypto assets. 

They’ll look at a US bitcoin reserve, see sovereign funds investing, see more being built on Ethereum and hear more about tokenization. 

“And, oh my god, we actually own nothing,” he said, mimicking how some institutions could react. “Nothing is the wrong number.” 

— Ben Strack