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🌊 Progr-SEC
Amid volatility, the wave of bullish SEC news continues

Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:
The SEC has been busy resetting its relationship with the crypto industry. A timeline, for your records.
The market has been waiting for tariffs. Now they’re here.
The unofficial State of the Union address is tonight. Here’s what to watch.
Amid volatility, a stable flow of SEC actions
An SEC overhaul was one of the crypto industry’s major expectations upon lobbying for — and ultimately achieving — an administration change.
While the Trump-Zelensky meeting fallout, the president’s crypto reserve announcement and tariffs have commanded headlines in recent days, the US securities regulator continues to share industry-changing news.
The latest development? The SEC closed its investigation into Yuga Labs, which the company called “a huge win for NFTs” in a Tuesday tweet. It added succinctly: “NFTs are not securities.”
Let’s map out the many other SEC actions since Trump’s election victory on Nov. 6:
The set-up
Nov. 21: SEC Chair Gary Gensler says he will depart the agency on Jan. 20.
Dec. 4: Trump nominates Paul Atkins to lead the SEC. He’s not yet confirmed as chair, but that hasn’t held back the commission like some thought it might.
Jan. 20: Gensler indeed steps down as chair.
Jan. 21: Trump names Mark Uyeda acting chair.
Jan. 21: The SEC reveals a new crypto task force (led by Hester Peirce) “dedicated to developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”
Guidance, suit dismissals, ended probes, oh my.
Jan. 23: SEC releases SAB 122, rescinding SAB 121. Industry watchers say the move could pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot crypto.
Feb. 4: Peirce lays out the SEC’s crypto-focused priorities, noting it’ll take time to “disentangle all these strands.”
Feb. 13: A federal judge pauses the SEC’s civil lawsuit against Binance for 60 days.
Feb. 20: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reveals the SEC’s decision to drop its litigation with the crypto exchange.
Feb. 21: The SEC ends its investigation into NFT platform OpenSea, CEO Devin Finzer shares.
Feb. 21: Robinhood also gets word from the SEC that the agency has closed its probe into the company. No intended enforcement action.
Feb. 21: Another Peirce statement urges public input to achieve crypto regulatory clarity on a number of questions. Some for the industry to ponder on security status, for example:

Feb. 24: The SEC concludes its probe into Gemini. Also no planned action.
Feb. 24: Another closed investigation with similar outcome. This time the one into Uniswap Labs.
Feb. 27: Consensys and the SEC agree the securities enforcement case concerning MetaMask should be dismissed.
Feb. 27: The SEC notes its decision to dismiss the Coinbase suit is to “renew its regulatory approach to the crypto industry” rather than “any assessment of the merits of the claims alleged in the action.”
Feb. 27: SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw says the SEC’s Coinbase dismissal “ignores 80 years of well-established law.” She adds: “Whatever the law may be tomorrow, market participants should not be able to avoid the law as it stands today.”
Feb. 27: A busy day, the SEC also addresses memecoins. It believes “transactions in the types of memecoins described in this statement do not involve the offer and sale of securities under the federal securities laws.”
Then this week, a few things preceded the aforementioned Yuga Labs news. The SEC agreed “in principle” and “with prejudice” to drop its lawsuit against Kraken.
Peirce then revealed members of the crypto task force. Chief of staff Richard Gabbert is a senior adviser to Uyeda and has served as counsel to Peirce since 2018.
Oh, and the SEC has all the while been acknowledging various crypto ETF proposals holding assets beyond BTC and ETH. A potential good sign for those, but no approvals yet.
Other than ETF decisions, we’ll be watching for any SEC pivot on the Ripple case.
— Ben Strack
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The number of consecutive trading days BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has endured net outflows. They did, however, slow on Monday ($78 million).
This unprecedented run for the largest spot bitcoin ETF comes as the market digests tariffs going into effect (Casey addresses that below), the meaning of Trump’s crypto reserve post and other macro factors.
A reminder that crypto investment products’ $2.9 billion of outflows from Feb. 24-28 was a weekly record, according to CoinShares data.

President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect after a one-month delay this morning.
Both countries announced plans to retaliate: Canada will put a 25% levy on around $100 billion of US imports and Mexico will share its next moves on Sunday.
Trump also slapped another 10% duty on Chinese imports. In response, China will charge an extra 15% for a range of US imports, including chicken, wheat and cotton. An added 10% tariff will be placed on soybeans, seafood and other products.
China also filed a lawsuit against the US with the World Trade Organization.
Markets reacted as expected: Gold is up, stocks are down and the VIX is elevated. As of this afternoon, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had both nearly erased all gains since Election Day. The S&P 500 is now down 1.2% year to date while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has lost more than 5% since the start of the year.
The VIX spiked to above 26 shortly after the open this morning, marking the highest level of volatility we’ve seen so far this year. Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and interest rate decisions are weighing on investor sentiment.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar dipped just a bit, likely reflecting investors’ belief that these higher tariffs will be short-lived. Personally, I think this is wishful thinking. The longer these new trade fees stay in place, the greater the selloff we’ll see on both currencies.
— Casey Wagner
No Theories. Just Market Movers.
The biggest players in finance and crypto aren’t waiting for the next cycle to play out — they’re engineering it. Who’s taking the mic at DAS NYC?
Miguel Morel (Arkham) – Onchain intelligence is rewriting the playbook. Here’s how.
David Mercer (LMAX Group) – The real institutional flow into crypto (not the headlines).
Keerthi Moudgal (Kinexys by JPMorgan) – The infrastructure that’s actually making TradFi-to-DeFi real.
Leah Wald (Sol Strategies) – Navigating market swings like it’s second nature.
Less than 3 weeks to go to DAS NYC. The smartest money is already in. Are you?

As markets continue to react to the latest tariff announcements, President Trump is preparing to give his first joint Congressional address this evening.
We expect his speech will primarily defend the new levies placed on Mexico, Canada and China.
Other timely topics he may touch on include the federal budget, which, if Congress fails to pass in the next 10 days, will spur a government shutdown. We also wouldn’t be surprised if he gets on the defensive about that Oval Office conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
“TOMORROW WILL BE BIG. I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!” the president wrote in a Truth Social post last night. As if anyone had any expectations he would refrain from sharing his candid thoughts and feelings.
It’s unlikely that Trump will mention either the tumbling stock market or cryptocurrencies. If he does get into the economy, we expect him to mention investments in US-made AI and technology initiatives, such as Apple’s $500 billion commitment.
I’d be surprised if Trump comments on the crypto reserve he first announced over the weekend, but it’s possible he does, especially since he’s likely going to need Congressional approval to get it up and running.
His speech comes days ahead of the White House’s inaugural crypto summit, which will kick off on Friday. The guest list has so far been kept under wraps, but federal officials attending include AI and crypto czar David Sacks and digital asset working group executive director Bo Hines.
Tonight’s address starts at 9 pm ET.
— Casey Wagner

Bitcoin was below $82,000 early Tuesday before surging above $88,000 just after 2 pm ET.
The White House threw support behind the Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution to repeal the so-called DeFi broker rule. If you forget what that is, here’s a reminder.
Despite the heated Oval Office meeting we referenced, the US and Ukraine planned to sign the minerals deal Tuesday, Reuters reported.
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