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Happy Monday, all! Ben has returned from vacation to share an update on the latest crypto ETF filings. And he reminds us of the looming SEC deadline that could mark a major product milestone.

Casey gives a rundown of what you need to be watching on the economic data front. Let’s get into it:  

The crypto ETFs on deck

I enjoyed my time off, but it’s always nice to be back in the loop.

A lot happened on the crypto ETF front while I was away. And perhaps you forgot we’re approaching a very important SEC deadline.

But first, checking up on ETF filings — as one does first thing after returning from abroad — I came across Yorkville America Digital’s latest proposal. That would be a Truth Social-branded ETF that this time would hold both BTC and ETH.  

Yorkville finalized a partnership with Truth Social parent company Trump Media and Technology Group in April and previously signaled its plan to launch a bitcoin ETF.

CoinShares, meanwhile, joined the spot solana ETF race, becoming the eighth issuer to do so. The firm declined to comment. 

Those filings come after the SEC engaged with issuers about spot SOL products and the subsequent S-1 amendments. You likely saw that covered in Blockworks last week. 

A person familiar with the amendments told me today that the exact timeline of an SEC ruling on the solana products remains unknown. But “a flurry of filings” is typically “the best sign” that products are close to approval, the source noted, adding the latest S-1s point to “some sort of push from the SEC to get things organized.”

While those proposal adjustments dealt with the single-asset funds (complete with staking language), let us not forget about crypto index ETFs.

We should know by July 2 whether the SEC is letting the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) convert to an ETF. That fund’s holdings are below:

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expect the agency to let GDLC — and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) — become ETFs.  

“Having only small allocations to alternative coins might help their ETF conversion bids even if the SEC hasn’t individually approved each asset for an ETF wrapper,” James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote in a note last week.

Samir Kerbage, CIO of Brazil-based asset manager Hashdex, shared a similar sentiment when we spoke last month. The company filed to allow its existing Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF (NCIQ) to hold tokens beyond BTC and ETH — like SOL, XRP and others.  

Kerbage told me today that he views the solana ETF S-1 amendments as “a positive development toward approving broader crypto index ETF proposals — as BTC, ETH and SOL, combined, constitute more than 90% of the Nasdaq Crypto Index.”

To be clear, the person familiar with the latest ETF filings views the S-1 amendments and upcoming crypto index product deadline as two distinct things.

Still, some think the SEC greenlighting crypto index ETFs could open the floodgates. Take this June 10 X post by Van Buren Capital general partner Scott Johnsson, for example, which appears to allude to the July 2 deadline.

He noted last month that because the index products have a more undefined universe of allocations, the SEC would theoretically adopt a general rule vs. a case-by-case rule application.

“Once the index products are (hopefully) cleared, it should be a simple application of the general rule to the single asset spot products,” Johnsson added at the time. 

We’ll be watching this very closely over the next two weeks.

— Ben Strack

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This is where the Empire State Manufacturing Index sits in June, according to data released by the New York Fed on Monday. This is lower than projected (-6) and a decline from May’s print of -9.2. 

The survey measures manufacturing activity in New York state. New orders and shipments declined while inventories remained little changed from May, the report noted.

The big economic event of this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision. While markets are all but certain (99.9%, per CME Group) committee members will leave interest rates unchanged, investors will be reading this month’s projection materials closely. As a reminder, US markets will be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. 

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Along with the FOMC’s Wednesday interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference, we’ll also get updated projection materials. In March, most FOMC members reported expecting interest rates to land at 3.75%-4% by the end of 2025. With the current rate being 4.25%-4.5%, this means committee members expected two 25 basis point cuts (or one 50bps decrease) by December. We know that tariffs haven’t yet impacted inflation much, according to last week’s CPI report. But the Fed is still concerned about maintaining a strong labor market, and now it also has to worry about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. 

• Initial jobless claims come out Wednesday. The figure is expected to tick slightly higher to 250,000 (vs. 248,000 the week prior). Housing starts and building permit data for May will also be released that day. Both are expected to post a small bump from April, which would be a welcome sign that tariffs are not weighing too heavily on builder sentiment.

— Casey Wagner