đź”” Jobs jolt

Wall Street unpacks July's report

August 04, 2025

Welcome back. Casey is flying solo this week while Ben enjoys some well-deserved vacation time. Today, she takes a deeper look at July’s labor report — and the chaos that followed. Let’s dive in: 

Jobs report fallout

It’s bounce-back day on Wall Street after Friday’s jobs report-fueled dip.

After the first three hours of trading Monday morning, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were up 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. I’m not shocked to see things back in the green, but I’m curious as to how long the rally may last. 

Investors are going to be watching for any additional fallout from the July jobs report. As a reminder, Friday’s release showed the economy added just 73,000 new positions last month (compared with expectations for 104,000). 

May and June also received significant downward revisions (a combined -258,000 positions), marking the biggest revision since 2020. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. 

The numbers were not good for stocks, although the report did help boost expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Fed. 

Chair Powell has stressed in the past that he’s primarily concerned with the unemployment rate as opposed to the number of positions added. Last week’s Fed decision (in which it opted to once again hold interest rates steady) came with an addendum we haven’t seen in decades: a double dissent. 

JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli called the two dissenting opinions in last week’s Fed decision (from Governors Waller and Bowman) a “job application,” and I’d have to agree. With Powell’s term set to expire next May (and Trump’s vocal distaste for Powell), the position is up for grabs. 

Here’s an excerpt from Waller’s opinion: 

“While the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased. With underlying inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate.”

From Waller’s mouth to the president’s ears? We’ll have to wait and see. 

Aside from Powell, there’s another (former) government official on Trump’s bad side: Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. He fired her on Friday following the release of July’s employment report, accusing her of manipulating the data to show a bias against his administration. 

“A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions,” the White House wrote in a Friday statement. 

The BLS earlier this year said it would have to reduce its data collection on consumer prices, which impacts its CPI report. Last week the agency clarified that the changes were implemented “to align survey workload with resource levels.” 

The situation adds a layer of political complexity to Friday’s disappointing report, and takes a hit to investor confidence in data. Noelle Acheson, from “Crypto is Macro Now,” put it best in her note today: 

“So, will the next BLS commissioner be able to avoid large revisions going forward? Obviously, they’ll have to if they want to keep their job, which elevates the temptation to publish late or to suppress new information as it comes in. Neither will be an improvement on the current situation.”

We’ll be on “labor report fallout watch” all week, so keep an eye on your inbox.

— Casey Wagner

Institutional interest in Ethereum is running hot. ETF flows are gaining momentum, new token acquisition vehicles are forming every week, and ecosystem morale is nearing ATHs. 

The only question left: Where will $ETH be when DAS London kicks off this October?

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Happy Monday. While investors continue to unpack last week’s market-moving data releases, the week ahead is looking much quieter. Here’s what we’ll be watching: 

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 2 will be released on Thursday. The report is projected to show 221,000 first-time filers, up from 218,000 the week prior. With markets still moving on July’s labor report, investors will be watching initial claims data for signs that layoffs are increasing. 

  • Earnings season continues this week, albeit with a lighter calendar. Big names set to release Q2 reports this week include Palantir, On Semiconductor, Walt Disney and Uber. 

  • Fed speakers this week include Gov. Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, both scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on Wednesday. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is slated to speak at an event in Colorado on Saturday afternoon. Bowman was one of two dissenting governors last week after the FOMC opted to leave interest rates unchanged.

— Casey Wagner