We’ve made it to another week! Can you believe this month is already half over?

September has historically been the worst month for bitcoin (and even the S&P 500). But halfway through this one, it looks like we could be headed for a third straight September in the green. Especially if a Federal Reserve rate cut gives crypto markets a boost this week — like it did a year ago.

For those not as into month-by-month trends, one crypto exec predicts an end point to the bull market that started nearly three years ago with BTC at $16,000. Finally (admittedly unrelated) feel free to check out the staking ETF Roundtable I’m moderating tomorrow. 

Another green September in store?

Could this be the year we see a record return for bitcoin in September? And what impact will this week’s big macro event have? 

We’re now halfway through a month during which BTC has averaged a -3% return since 2013. Bitcoin was in the red each September from 2017 to 2022 before rising in 2023 and notching its best September (+7.3%) last year, Coinglass data shows. 

We can in part attribute this anomaly to a notable market event in September 2024: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in four years (and a 50bps one, at that.)

BTC rose about 10% (from ~$60,000 to ~$66,000) in the 10 days following the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting, per Blockworks Research data:

Almost exactly a year later, we sit here awaiting another likely cut on Wednesday as the Fed considers both sides of its mandate of achieving maximum employment and stable prices. Markets overwhelmingly expect a 25bps cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch — even more than a week ago, given last week’s economic data. A 50bps cut would be a surprise to many.

Zooming out beyond this month, one crypto exec said we could officially be in the final wave of a bull market that began in November 2022, when one bitcoin was worth ~$16,000.

I’m referring to Ledn CIO John Glover, who uses Elliott Wave Theory to predict BTC price. That assumes a deeply liquid market will move in the main trend direction in five waves (three “motive” phases pushing price up, with two downward “corrective” phases in between). There are then three waves that go opposite that trend. 

Glover told me at the Digital Asset Summit in March that it appeared Wave 4 was near its end — and that Wave 5 would lead to a BTC price rally toward $135,000 by Q1 2026. 

In a Friday email, Glover said his more recent concern that BTC’s price decline to $107,000 signaled further declines “has been unfounded.” Bitcoin was around $115,000 at 2 pm ET Monday — up 3.5% from a week ago.

“The bounce off of the declining trendline seems to be gaining traction as the market looks to the slowing economic data in the US to be bullish for digital assets,” Glover added. 

Bitcoin investment products last week saw their largest net inflows since July, attracting $2.4 billion from Sept. 8-12.  

We seem to be early on in Wave v (yellow line) of Wave 5 (orange line) — with Wave 5 to end in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 around $145,000, Glover predicts.

Bitcoin closing below $104,000 “would open up a move to slightly below $100,000 before we gain some support,” he explained (bringing the ultimate target down to about $130,000). 

All of this said, we shouldn’t get too caught up on BTC price projections. This zooming out is a good counter to some of the seasonal trends, and it’s worth noting how macro events can tamper with historical data — especially as bitcoin has become more tied to the macroeconomic environment.

Did I mention Felix is back this week? I’ll be curious of his Thursday take of future rate decisions if the expected 25bps cut indeed comes true this time around. But I suppose let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 

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