We’ve made it to Friday, folks. Ben breaks down the impact of the GENIUS Act officially becoming law just moments ago.

And Casey dives into data showing how trade policies are impacting inflation.

GENIUS Act’s expected impact

After a week of political theatrics, we’ve made it to the GENIUS Act signing. 

President Trump was, just moments ago, making official the first-of-its kind regulatory framework for US dollar-backed stablecoins.

The milestone comes a day after the House of Representatives passed the GENIUS Act in a 307-122 vote. The Senate had advanced the bill last month, when 18 Democrats joined Republicans as part of a 68-30 vote. 

Casey has detailed some of the bill’s specifics. Requirements for stablecoin issuers to keep fully-backed liquid reserves (i.e. USD and short-term Treasury securities). Entities with $50 billion-plus of issued tokens would have to undergo annual audits. 

It also offers an alternative to what some have called the “patchwork” of state regulatory frameworks that stablecoin issuers previously had to rely on.

The growth of the currently $250 billion stablecoin market will have “a profound effect” on dollar dominance and demand for US debt, a senior US Treasury official said on a Friday press call. 

It’s also about payments innovation, the person added — as the federal government is essentially giving an unprecedented vote of confidence to permissionless blockchains.

You also probably saw the House pass the CLARITY Act. That bill, which would establish a definition for “digital commodities” and divide crypto oversight between the CFTC and the SEC, heads to the Senate. 

Countless crypto execs and segment observers have sent statements about what this legislative progress means for the industry. Steve Kurz, who leads Galaxy’s asset management business, articulated its significance slightly differently than most.  

Kurz told me yesterday that the legislation lights a fire under the financial institutions looking at getting involved in this space to do so … stat. And it gives a wake-up call to others who had an excuse to stay on the sidelines. 

“It really takes what had been a business plan, a [crypto] working group or a check-the-box exercise and puts it immediately into ‘Wait a minute, this is here, this is now, this is legal, we have to be doing it [because] our competitors are doing it,’” he explained. “I think this catch-up moment around digital infrastructure within large institutions is going to surprise a lot of people.”

A “catch-up moment” would imply speedy developments. Franklin Templeton’s Sandy Kaul had also predicted as much, noting banks would issue their own stablecoins and versions of tokenized cash to stay competitive in a wallet-based world.

Some will be quicker to market than others, Kaul told me — but one thing she believes: We’ll see more financial infrastructure transformation in the next five years than we’ve seen in the last 50.

So as the bill crosses the finish line, another start line emerges. 

— Ben Strack

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📅 October 13-15 | London

Happy Friday! Ben already broke down the big policy news of the week, but there was also a lot happening on the economic data front. 

The latest inflation prints show that sectors most primed to be hit by higher tariffs are starting to be impacted by new trade policies. Here’s a recap: 

• June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% over the month, bringing the annual rate to 2.7%. It’s the strongest month-over-month increase since January, largely due to higher prices in tariff-sensitive goods like appliances and home furnishings. The Producer Price Index (PPI), meanwhile, held steady month over month. A 0.3% increase in goods offset a 0.1% decline in services, resulting in a flat overall reading. 

• Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 12 dropped to 221,000 — a decline of 7,000 from the previous week and below the consensus forecast of 235,000. This marks the fifth-consecutive weekly decline, with the four-week moving average falling to 229,500, the lowest level since early May. Continuing claims, on the other hand, rose, as has been the case in recent weeks. There were 1.956 million continued filers for the week ended July 5. Once again, the numbers suggest that there are not significant layoffs, but it’s getting more challenging to find positions. 

• June’s housing starts report showed that total housing starts rose 4.6% over the month to an annualized 1.321 million. This was mainly driven by a rebound in multifamily units. Single-family starts, on the other hand, fell 4.6% to 883,000, the lowest monthly reading since July 2024. Tariffs are impacting material costs, potentially weighing on the broader residential real estate investment landscape.

— Casey Wagner