Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• When (or not) to expect possible solana, XRP, litecoin ETF approvals.

• One last round-up of Trump’s promises ahead of Inauguration Day.

• The economic data you might have missed, and what it means.

A crypto ETF check-in after LTC proposal buzz

After the 2024 launches of US bitcoin and ether ETFs, proposals for funds holding solana, XRP and even HBAR surfaced. Others would, if greenlit, diversify across multiple coins.

There was also a litecoin ETF plan from Canary Capital Group that the firm amended this week. Nasdaq submitted a 19b-4 form on Canary’s behalf — with some considering this step a positive sign for the product’s fate.

Canary CEO Steven McClurg told me he has “a high level of confidence” there’ll be more spot crypto ETFs in the US market this year, declining to get too specific.

We’ve heard industry watchers offer their “when, not if” optimism. But as the proposal stack grows bigger on the proverbial SEC desk (we’re in the digital filing age, didn’t you know?), the key question is what exactly it will take for these to get the go-ahead.

And with a new SEC administration, are we talking weeks, months or years?

Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart (who spoke with me and Felix recently) noted on X that a litecoin ETF could see the light of day before SOL and XRP offerings.

One of the reasons would be that the SEC — in lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, for example — has not labeled litecoin as a security. 

It did however put SOL in that securities category. And you know about the agency’s legal battle with Ripple. If you need a refresher, Casey yesterday detailed the SEC moving forward with an appeal in that case.

ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy agreed an LTC ETF may have better odds due to “its simpler use case and history,” avoiding some regulatory scrutiny tied to XRP and SOL. He added that approval in 2025 is possible.

“That said, the SEC remains cautious about market manipulation and custody risks, which apply to all crypto ETFs,” Roy told me.

Beyond the young US spot crypto products, today is the seven-year anniversary of the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) coming to market. 

Crypto equity ETFs remain a key way advisers plan to get exposure to the space (see Bitwise/VettaFi survey results below), so I’ll be interested to see what sort of flows this fund notches in 2025. Its assets under management stand just shy of $1 billion.

We could see new holdings for BLOK when more crypto- and blockchain-related companies go public. But for now, BLOK co-portfolio manager Dan Weiskopf told us he’s watching miners delving deeper into the AI segment and companies buying/holding BTC.

BLOK’s top five holdings are currently Galaxy, Robinhood, Core Scientific, Coinbase and MicroStrategy. 

The six-spot goes to Metaplanet, a Japan-based MicroStrategy Jr. of sorts that has said it intends to up its bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC this year.

— Ben Strack

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The amount Digital Currency Group is set to pay to the SEC to settle charges accusing lender Genesis of “misleading investors.” 

Former Genesis CEO Michael Moro, who left the firm in August 2022, is also slated to pay $500,000.

President-elect Donald Trump has made a lot of promises for his first day in office, to the crypto industry and otherwise. 

With his inauguration just days away, let’s review some of his vows: 

Increase tariffs 

Trump’s proposed tariff plans have made headlines for months. In late November, though, he made a new promise: a 10% increase on China, plus 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The latter two countries quickly signaled they were willing to negotiate. 

Just this week Trump said that the “External Revenue Service,” a new agency that would be tasked with collecting tariff income, will be created on Monday. We at Forward Guidance are of the belief that tariff increases will happen at a much slower pace, though. 

Commute Silk Road creator’s sentence

Trump in May pledged to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, who has been serving a double life sentence plus 40 years since 2015. 

Ulbricht  was convicted on seven federal counts including narcotics conspiracy and money laundering for his role in founding the Silk Road marketplace. Prosecutors also presented evidence during trial supporting allegations that Ulbricht had paid $730,000 in murder-for-hire fees, but he was not charged with this crime. 

Overturn SAB 121

Trump reportedly plans to reverse the SEC’s controversial SAB 121 guidance, which states that crypto custodians should list custodied assets as liabilities on their balance sheet. 

President Biden last year vetoed a bipartisan resolution that sought to do just this, arguing the legislation “would inappropriately constrain” the SEC.

— Casey Wagner

Happy Friday! Inflation week is officially behind us, and Inauguration Day and FOMC decision day loom. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Here’s a recap of what happened this week: 

• The key inflation reports, PPI and CPI, came in mixed this week. Tuesday’s PPI release showed a 3.3% annual increase in the prices companies are seeing, up from November’s 12-month reading of 3% but still lower than the 3.5% analysts had projected. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from November and 2.9% from a year ago, which was the fastest monthly increase since February. But core CPI (excluding food and fuel), actually decreased annually, coming in at 3.2% vs. 3.3% in November. 

• New York Fed President Williams on Wednesday reiterated that central bankers will need to continue evaluating economic data in the new political environment of the next administration. Williams is vice chair of the FOMC, which sets fed funds rates. “The economic outlook remains highly uncertain,” he said. 

• Initial jobless claims on Thursday showed there were 217,000 first time filers in the week ended Jan. 11, up 14,000 from the week prior. The insured unemployment rate for the week ended Jan. 4 was unchanged at 1.2%. Despite an increase in initial claims, the data does not put us in “unhealthy labor market” territory — at least not yet.

— Casey Wagner

• Bitcoin’s price climbed above $105,000 earlier today, settling around $104,800 by 2 pm ET — a nearly 5% rise in the past 24 hours. Ether’s price at that time was 3.2% higher than a day ago, at about $3,415.

• Publicly traded bitcoin miners collectively held a record-level 92,000-plus BTC at the end of 2024, BlocksBridge Consulting recently pointed out. That was up from about 39,000 BTC in December 2023, reflecting accelerated purchases last year from companies like Marathon, Riot Platforms and Hut 8.

• Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It is also the day President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated. There’ll be a Forward Guidance edition in your inbox.