Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Ben recaps the crypto-election timeline and some possible market impacts following tomorrow’s outcome.

• Crypto might decide this one close Senate race.

• We have a very busy week ahead of us. See what we’re watching below.

Weighing the Harris/Trump crypto impact on Election Eve 

Election Day is tomorrow. Polls in recent days show the race remains very tight. 

Knowing whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next US president is expected to impact crypto markets in some way, though exactly how is something we won’t know until the next few days (at least) play out.  

Let’s rewind to May for a moment, when a couple things grabbed the crypto industry’s attention: The Trump campaign started accepting crypto donations and President Joe Biden vetoed a resolution (deemed to be pro-crypto) that would have invalidated the SEC’s SAB 121.  

That month, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz likened crypto opposition (more prevalent on the Democratic side) to criticizing dogs — noting the tens of millions of Americans that own each. 

Later, Trump spoke explicitly about his support for crypto — at a meeting with bitcoin mining executives in June and then at the Bitcoin 2024 conference the following month. Among his promises at the latter event in Nashville included firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler and stopping government sales of seized bitcoin. Also in July, the GOP mentioned ending the “unlawful” crackdown on crypto in its party platform.

Harris has made a few comments in support of emerging technologies (including crypto) and pledged to bolster Black men’s rights to safely invest in crypto — but has not shared many details. Galaxy research head Alex Thorn has said he expects Harris to be more supportive of crypto than Biden has been, but less favorable to the industry than Trump.

Crypto was not mentioned in the Harris/Trump or Tim Walz/JD Vance debates. And Harris has not shared what she would do about Gensler — a point Blockchain Association’s Ron Hammond said industry participants wanted more clarity on from her.

Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad gave Harris credit for engaging with the crypto community, but lauded Trump’s more comprehensive remarks on the topic.  

While the latest New York Times poll was largely unchanged from previous ones (national polling average shows Harris leading 49% to 48%, as of Monday morning), Trump’s big lead (according to Polymarket odds) has shrunk from several days ago.

Bitcoin was trading below $69,000 on Monday morning, down from the $73,000-plus level it reached last week. 

Andre Dragosch, head of Bitwise’s European research, said in a note that while bitcoin’s correlation to US presidential election odds have increased lately, its “macro correlations” to traditional assets (like US stocks or gold) remain higher.

Bitwise estimates show, if the election was held today, that a Trump victory would boost bitcoin’s price by 10.1% (sending it to an all-time high), while a Harris win would spur a 9.8% decline for the asset.

Swan Bitcoin managing director John Haar is among those expecting that the election may only have a short-term impact on crypto markets.

“In the medium and longer term, we believe that the outcome of this presidential race does not materially alter the trends supporting bitcoin, which include continued government deficit spending, expansive Fed monetary policy and ongoing bitcoin adoption,” he said.

Many have reminded us that what politicians say they’ll do, and what they actually do, can differ materially. So it’s safe to say the election results will represent a new chapter to this evolving story, but not the end.

— Ben Strack

While we’re focused on Tuesday’s election, crypto super PAC Fairshake is already thinking ahead to the 2026 midterms. The committee and its affiliates have raised more than $78 million for 2026 races. 

Of this figure, $48 million represents new commitments, including $25 million from Coinbase and over $23 million from Andreessen Horowitz.

It’s Election Day Eve! I certainly don’t envy the campaign workers (or the candidates) for that matter, during these crucial final hours.

The Blockworks news team will be working late tomorrow providing you with all the updates on the most influential races and market moves. But for now, here’s a quick preview of a key Senate race I’ve been following closely. 

Senator Sherrod Brown will face off against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, who is vying for his US Senate seat. 

Brown, the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has largely been seen by the crypto industry as an adversary. He holds a central position in deciding which pieces of legislation make it to committees for markup and to the floor for a vote, and he hasn’t exactly been pushing for crypto-focused bills. Brown was also not one of the 12 Democratic Senators who voted to overturn the SEC’s SAB 121 bill. 

Moreno, a car salesman, captured the industry’s attention when he went up against a key member of the so-called “anti-crypto army.” Plus, he’s made crypto a central part of his messaging on the campaign trail, vowing to block a CBDC and fight against those looking to “destroy crypto.” 

Defend American Jobs, a Fairshake-associated crypto super PAC, has spent more than $19 million supporting Moreno through the end of August, federal filings show. 

Now, as the race heads into the eleventh hour, things are looking tight. As of Nov. 1, Brown currently leads by just 0.3% in an average of national polls.

— Casey Wagner

Happy Monday! The big event this week, of course, is the US election. We hope our US readers have made their voting plans already, but if not, there are plenty of resources available. The second major event this week will be Thursday’s FOMC rate decision. Buckle up, it’s going to be a busy few days. 

• Tuesday’s ISM services figures are probably going to get lost in the election frenzy, but it will be an important report to watch. We’re looking for another reading above 50, which indicates economic growth. September’s figure came in at 54.9 and analysts are expecting 53.7 for October. 

• The Fed’s rate decision will come on Thursday this week. It’s a shift from the normal Wednesday release schedule since the election is on Tuesday. Markets are all but certain central bankers will opt for a 25-basis point cut this week, especially after last week’s mixed October jobs report. The main focus will be looking for signs from Chair Powell about whether the committee feels that economic data is strong enough to warrant a pause in December.

— Casey Wagner

• Digital asset investment products clocked $2.2 billion in inflows last week, bringing year-to-date inflows to $29.2 billion. That’s a new annual record, according to data from CoinShares. Analysts attribute the move to optimism behind a Republican sweep this week. 

• The Supreme Court is set to hear from Meta and Nvidia this month as the tech giants, in separate suits, attempt to dismiss securities fraud lawsuits. The outcomes could impact consumer protection laws moving forward. 

• Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal last week alleged the cryptocurrency exchange had found more than 20 examples of the FDIC advising banks to not engage with crypto companies looking for banking services.