Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• A deeper look at Coinbase’s Q4 results and the bellwether crypto stock’s outlook.  

• Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan could take many weeks, putting investors at ease. 

• It was a busy week on the inflation data front. Find our recap below.

Coinbase Q4 takeaways, updated outlook

When Coinbase reports its quarterly results, crypto and TradFi investors alike tend to tune in. 

COIN, after all, is, in the words of Oppenheimer analysts, a gateway for customers to access Web3 given its “leading and focused position in crypto, which benefits the company as onchain becomes the new online.”

And it’s public — unlike some others waiting their turn. 

Onto the results from yesterday: The crypto exchange’s $2.2 billion of net revenue last quarter was up 143% year over year.

That was $305 million above Oppenheimer analysts’ estimate.

Transaction revenue was nearly $1.6 billion, a 172% increase from Q3. So-called subscription and services revenue grew 15% over that span, to $641 million.

The biggest surprise, Oppenheimer’s Owen Lau told me, was the higher-than-expected participation from the retail segment — showing such users are “gradually coming back.” See, for example, the “consumer” line in the chart below.

Sure, this was during a quarter where bitcoin and a number of other crypto assets hit all-time highs following the victory of Donald Trump and crypto-friendly Congressional candidates. 

But even as BTC has remained range-bound in recent weeks below its peak, Coinbase’s early 2025 numbers appear to be strong.

Its 2025 transaction revenue stood at $750 million as of Feb. 11, the company said. Coinbase is forecasting Q1 subscription and services revenue to slightly increase to between $685 million and $765 million.

On that point, Morningstar analyst Michael Miller said his eye will be on the exchange’s USDC revenue in Q1 given the stablecoin recently hitting an all-time high market cap.  

“I’ll be curious to see what a full quarter will look like at its scale and if USDC continues to take market share away from other stablecoins,” Miller told me.

COIN’s price was around $278 at 2 pm ET — down nearly 7% on the day. 

Oppenheimer’s price target for the stock is $388, while Miller believes the shares are “overvalued” as, post-election, “the market is pricing in too much growth.”

You might recall one of Bitwise’s 10 predictions for 2025 was Coinbase surpassing Charles Schwab as the world’s most valuable brokerage. The asset manager said it expects its stock will top $700 per share, citing continued growth in its stablecoin business, L2 Base, and staking and custody services.  

Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon has this November 2023 tweet pinned:

 Another catalyst to watch for, Lau said, is COIN’s possible inclusion in the S&P 500. 

And then, you know, all the potential regulatory tailwinds that come from having a pro-crypto president, Congress and SEC. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said “it’s hard to overstate the significance of this change” given it is likely to pressure increased crypto adoption worldwide. 

“Up to 10% of global GDP could be running on crypto rails by the end of this decade,” Armstrong said on Thursday’s earnings call — noting Coinbase will be “the preferred partner” due to its “trusted and scalable infrastructure with the longest track record.”

The company said it’s chatting with regulators and legislators to help shape US crypto regulation.

The chance of a stablecoin bill and digital asset market structure bill passing in the 119th Congress? Compass Point’s Ed Groshans, in a Friday note, said 75% and 60%, respectively.

— Ben Strack

Six weeks out from DAS NYC, and the stakes have never been higher.

How are fund managers positioning? What’s the real institutional play on ETFs, onchain finance, and global markets?

At DAS NYC, you’ll hear directly from the firms building their strategies around this:

• Franklin Templeton on tokenization and the next phase of asset management.

• Morgan Stanley Investment Management on how institutions are positioning in emerging markets.

• Galaxy Digital on the investment landscape and how smart money is allocating.

If you’re coming, bring your team. Group passes are 25% off for 10+ people — but only until Feb. 14. Smaller groups (4-9) still save 15%.

📅 March 18-20 | NYC

The value of bitcoin ETF shares held by one of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds — Mubadala Investment Company — in Q4, according to its latest 13F filing.

Various industry watchers have cited increased crypto adoption by these types of funds, and companies, when mapping out bullish outlooks. You might recall Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz alluding to this phenomenon at last week’s Ondo Summit.

President Trump yesterday said his team is off to the races with reciprocal tariffs. Advisers have been instructed to come up with new tariff levels that consider fees and taxes placed on US exports. 

The timeline is a bit uncertain. But Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said the studies may be completed by early April. Lutnick, if confirmed, will work with the office of the US Trade Representative on establishing the new levies. 

The import taxes, Trump said, will be designed on a country-by-country basis in order to offset tariffs on US exports and non-tariffs barriers, like exchange rates and value-added taxes. 

Markets took Trump’s announcement well, a sign that his comments were not as bad as investors had feared, or at the very least it’s going to take several weeks for tariffs to be implemented. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reversed midway through Thursday’s session to close 1% and 1.3% higher, respectively. 

The uncertainty around the nature of the tariffs and when they may start is going to leave investors uneasy. But generally, we expect talk of tariffs — and therefore market impact — to die down a bit over the few weeks while advisers conduct their trade studies. 

In the meantime, it’s primarily going to be data moving markets. Next week we’ll get some key manufacturing numbers as well as the minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting last month, both of which will be useful in determining how long the interest rate-cutting cycle may be paused.

— Casey Wagner

Happy Friday! It was a big week for inflation data and earnings, both of which kept investors on their toes. Next week should be more quiet with US markets closed on Monday in honor of Presidents’ Day. 

Here’s this week’s recap:

• January’s CPI print came in a bit above expectations, showing a 0.5% increase over the month and putting annual inflation at 3%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.3% for the 12 months ended January. While the reading was disappointing, there are two things to keep in mind. First, inflation almost always sees a beginning of the year spike as companies raise their prices. Second, the devastating wildfires in the LA area are likely contributing to higher housing and vehicle prices.

• January’s PPI, on the other hand, came in a bit better. The headline figure grew 0.4% over the month, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations, and core PPI was up 0.3%, as anticipated. Annually, all-items PPI increased 3.5%, which may be well above the Fed’s 2% target, but this isn’t the central bank’s primary inflation index. 

• US retail sales fell in January to an almost two-year low, again likely in part due to wildfires and severe winter storms around the country. The value of retail purchases was down 0.9% from December. Retail sales ended 2024 up 3.7% from the year prior, though, signaling strong holiday season spending.

— Casey Wagner

• Bitcoin’s price at 2 pm ET was $98,300 — up 1.7% from 24 hours prior. Ether, meanwhile, rose 3% to $2,757 by that time.

• US bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for a fourth straight day on Thursday. The funds have bled $650 million over that span. ETH ETF outflows have been more muted this week at $38 million.

• Speaking of such products, Hashdex today launched its Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF — a unique product that holds both BTC and ETH. Product filings have indicated this ETF could seek to invest in other crypto assets down the line as the regulatory environment changes.