Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Rostin Behnam announces his departure from the CFTC.

• How Ripple is preparing for Trump’s expected impact on the US crypto market.

• A bitcoin mining stock we’re watching given its imminent data center project.

Behnam’s parting ask for crypto rules 

We got another expected Biden-era cabinet member resignation today: CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will step down from his position on Inauguration Day and leave the agency altogether in early February.

Behnam, a Democrat nominated to the commission by Donald Trump in 2017, became acting chair after President Joe Biden was inaugurated. He was later confirmed by the Senate in December 2021. 

Trump is expected to name either Caroline Pham or Summer Mersinger, both sitting Republican commissioners, as acting chair later this month. He may or may not opt to bring in a new candidate for Senate approval. 

Short-listed names to head the derivatives regulator include Jill Sommers of consultancy firm Potomak Global Partners and Milbank law partner Josh Sterling, according to Reuters. 

Former CFTC Commissioner and head of policy at a16z crypto Brian Quintenz is also being considered, a person familiar with the matter told Blockworks. Quintenz served on the commission from 2017 to 2021. 

The CFTC, long seen as a lesser player in the financial regulation landscape, took on a more important role in cryptocurrency regulation in recent years. Bipartisan efforts, including the FIT21 bill that passed through Congress last year, attempted to give the CFTC more oversight over crypto markets. 

Behnam himself advocated for more CFTC authority, particularly with regards to the fact that as it currently stands, the agency does not have explicit, comprehensive authority over crypto derivatives markets. 

“The evidence is in our enforcement record, and we even point to the SEC’s enforcement record as well,” Behnam said in 2023 during a Congressional hearing. “We brought 82 cases over about eight years, and [these] 82 cases [came from] an agency that doesn’t have regulatory authority.” 

That said, the CFTC was part of the 2023 settlement agreement with Binance, which resulted in a payment of more than $4 billion, one of the largest corporate penalties ever. 

"Binance’s activities undermined the foundation of safe and sound financial markets by intentionally avoiding basic, fundamental obligations that apply to exchanges, all the while collecting approximately $1.35 billion in trading fees from US customers," Behnam said in a statement at the time of the settlement announcement. 

Pham and Mersinger — both known for their engagement with the crypto industry in recent years — have dissented from other commissioners regarding crypto enforcement actions. In September the two issued statements against the CFTC’s $175,000 settlement with Uniswap for an alleged illegal leveraged trading offering. 

Mersinger claimed that the case against Uniswap “has all the hallmarks of what we have come to know as regulation through enforcement.” 

Pham, in her opinion, noted that the agency seems to be treating crypto actors with a scrutiny they would never apply to other industries. 

“Applying the logic of the CFTC’s legal argument, it seems that any commercial transaction to purchase a cow, a bushel of oats or a barrel of oil that involves the word ‘financed’ and is delivered in 30 days is a violation of [commodities laws] and needs to be executed on a futures exchange,” Pham wrote. “I am skeptical that the CFTC would try to enforce these statutory provisions outside of DeFi.” 

The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to our request for comment on Behnam’s resignation.

— Casey Wagner

The number of job openings in the US in November, according to Tuesday’s JOLTS report. This is an increase of 259,000 from October. New hires fell by 125,000 in November, showing 5.269 million hires for the month. There were 1.765 million layoffs in November, relatively unchanged from October.

The so-called “Trump effect” on crypto has materialized — at least for one prominent crypto player — in the form of a stateside hiring spree. 

Ripple is seeking new pros across all departments. Roughly three-quarters of its open positions are based in the US, including those in its recently expanded San Francisco and New York offices.

Open roles include a general compliance manager and financial systems lead of enterprise performance management in San Fran, as well as a ​​KYC/due diligence specialist in NYC. Also a bunch of engineers.

The pick-up in hiring reflects optimism in the US market as a new administration steps into power (Trump, his cabinet nominees and a pro-crypto Congress). 

"While initial SEC policy shifts could begin within the first few months under new leadership, legislative progress may advance steadily as policymakers prioritize clear frameworks for digital assets,” a Ripple spokesperson told me. “The most immediate impact will likely come through changes in enforcement and by way of offering more regulatory guidance.” 

And perhaps less regulatory guidance, in some scenarios. The SEC, under a new leader (after Gary Gensler’s departure) could revoke SAB121, for example — guidance deterring some major players from custodying crypto.

Ultimately, Ripple said it’s looking for an end to SEC regulation by enforcement (the company knows all about legal battles with the SEC). It also seeks “fit-for-purpose frameworks” (rather than applying decades-old regulations) and “clear guidelines for institutional sales and distributions.” 

Such aforementioned clarifications would allow the company to significantly expand its US operations, the spokesperson said. 

The rep added: “We've already seen this starting to happen, closing as many enterprise deals in the two months post-election as in the previous six months."

— Ben Strack

Core Scientific got a lot of attention in 2024 for its hosting deals with cloud provider CoreWeave. 

But Hut 8’s plans to lease data center space to its own — for now unknown — AI hyperscaler may put it in an even stronger position than its rival, one analyst argues.

Various bitcoin miners embarked on revenue diversification efforts last year — particularly after last year’s Bitcoin halving. This included a focus on building out HPC verticals to support AI applications.  

CORZ stock shot up roughly 300% in 2024 after emerging from bankruptcy and relisting on the Nasdaq last January.

A Tuesday research note from Benchmark’s Mark Palmer followed the West Feliciana Parish Planning & Zoning Commission reportedly voting to approve Hut 8’s planned data center construction in Louisiana. It now seeks final approval.  

Palmer described this project as a likely “game-changer” for the company, noting: “We believe that HUT’s agreement with the unnamed AI hyperscaler could feature better economics on a per [megawatt] basis than CORZ is slated to realize in its deal.”

The reason, he explains, was startup CoreWeave’s inability to offer support needed for CORZ to tap the project finance market. It instead agreed to provide most of the capital required to build the project. 

On the other hand, Palmer explains, Hut 8 having the backing of a large, established AI hyperscaler enables it to access the finance market to raise the $2.5 billion it plans to invest in Phase One of the West Feliciana Parish project. 

“The upshot is that HUT wouldn’t face the discount to its economics that CORZ had given CoreWeave’s fronting of the capex for its project,” he added.

Hut 8 shares were trading for ~$24.85 at 1:45 pm ET, while CORZ stock was at ~$14.20. Though both were down more than 6% on the day at that time, Hut 8 had the YTD stock price gain edge on Core Scientific, +17% to -1%. 

Palmer’s price target for Hut 8 stock is $41. It’s safe to say we’ll be monitoring those shares as the miner’s data center project progresses.

— Ben Strack

• Bitcoin’s price was roughly $97,700 at 2:30 pm ET — down more than 4% from 24 hours ago. Ether had dropped by more than 7% over that span to about $3,420.

• Coinbase published redlined versions of letters the FDIC sent to banks asking them to pause services to crypto clients. The documents, Coinbase says, show the agency’s “abuse of FOIA Exemption 8.” 

• Corporations purchased a record amount of bitcoin during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to research analysts from Kaiko. MicroStrategy led the pack, purchasing 194,180 BTC in the final months of last year.