Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• What we know about Trump’s cabinet, and how crypto fits into that.

• The disconnect between an investor survey and crypto ETF inflows show how much things have changed. 

• Ben checked in with execs at a crypto-focused company hopeful for SEC changes as its quest to go public continues.

Trump builds his cabinet 

It’s been nearly a week since Donald Trump became the president-elect (again), and he’s been busy teasing his picks for top cabinet positions. 

While the administration's so-called “border czar” position is dominating the headlines, sources say Trump is still planning on hiring a “crypto czar.” But establishing a digital assets-related task force is on the back burner, at least for now. Trump is, as expected, starting with the highest-level positions first, and he has some help. 

Co-chairing Trump’s transition team — to help fill the roughly 4,000 positions that will make up the administration — is Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick. One of Cantor’s notable clients is stablecoin issuer Tether, which is rumored to be the subject of a federal investigation. 

Trump, Lutnick and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have been a cozy trio throughout the campaign, raising questions about how the billionaires could be serving their own business interests. 

Trump in September said Musk had agreed to head a new task force should he reclaim the White House. The “government efficiency commission” will conduct “a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and make recommendations for drastic reforms,” Trump said during a campaign stop at the Economic Club of New York. 

Susie Wiles, who co-ran Trump’s campaign since 2022, is set to be the first woman to serve as White House chief of staff. Wiles reportedly tipped off big Republican donors that Trump plans to immediately reinstate executive orders from his first term, according to the New York Times. While specifics weren’t given, some of Trump’s 2016-era orders include withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization (both of which former President Joe Biden promptly reversed). 

If all goes according to plan, Trump’s national security adviser will be Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, who has mirrored Trump’s views on withdrawing support to Ukraine. The title of border czar will be given to Tom Homan, former director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Homan’s RNC speech this year focused on mass deportation, a key pillar of Trump’s campaign. 

Crypto-friendly former presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy is out for Secretary of State and Marco Rubio is in (pending Senate approval, of course), according to people familiar with the matter. But Ramaswamy is a front runner to replace Vice President-elect JD Vance’s newly vacant Senate seat, I’ve heard. 

Positions still up for grabs include Secretary of the Treasury (investor John Paulson backed out this morning) and Defense Secretary (Fox is reporting that old Trump allies Robert Wilkie and Robert O’Brien may be on the short list). 

And, of course, there’s the SEC. As we’ve covered before, Trump’s promise to “fire Gary Gensler on day one” may not be legally sound, but he is likely to tap current Commissioner Mark Uyeda as acting chair should Gensler not step down on his own. 

Plus, it’s worth remembering that Trump isn’t one to shy away from a court battle, so who knows how this one might turn out. 

— Casey Wagner

The implied volatility percentile for November 2024 bitcoin futures, according to data from BitOoda. This indicates the current volatility level is higher than 67% of historical observations over the past year.

This comes after bitcoin broke yet another record early this morning, nearly reaching $90,000. The largest crypto asset is now up roughly 30% since Donald Trump was elected. 

I was slightly perplexed by the findings of a new ETF survey that mentions crypto sentiment. Then I read the fine print.

Retail investors are least interested in crypto and ESG ETFs in the next six months, ETF.com’s 2024 global investor survey found. Crypto-related stats in the report, published today, include:

• Between 70% and 80% of investors didn’t have any positions in leveraged, inverse, and cryptocurrency ETFs.

• “Only” 10% of advisers increased exposure to crypto over the past six months.

• Just 7.4% of investors ranked cryptocurrency as one of the top five sectors they want to invest in over the next six months.

Gavin Filmore, chief revenue officer at Tidal Financial Group, is quoted as calling that last finding “a shocker” — citing possible “crypto fatigue” among the “overexposed” younger generation.

Given bitcoin’s latest run, I found this surprising. But then it started to make sense as I scrolled down to the methodology. The more than 600 respondents shared their thoughts between Aug. 15 and Oct. 1.

Of course, a lot has happened since then. Donald Trump and a slew of crypto-friendly Congressional candidates notched wins last week and bitcoin just hit a new high at nearly $90,000. 

Then there’s the latest interest in US spot bitcoin ETFs, which tallied $1.1 billion of net inflows on their 10th monthiversary yesterday — making that $3.4 billion in the four trading days since the election). 

Perhaps ironically, the survey is sponsored by Vanguard — an asset management giant that has said crypto doesn’t belong in “a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio.”

I’m curious to see whether Vanguard’s thoughts about the asset class change in the coming months. And how the answers to similar survey questions shift once post-election sentiment is captured. 

— Ben Strack

With ongoing talk about how the regulatory winds are now set to turn in crypto’s favor after the election, one can look at software wallet Exodus to see how an SEC shakeup could have a real impact on industry companies.

I checked in with executives at Exodus, which had its public listing delayed in May. 

Exodus CEO JP Richardson wasn’t too happy about the delay, saying in a statement the company was “surprised and confused by this last-minute decision,” given it had been “fully transparent and responsive “ with the SEC throughout the process.

Elliot Chun, a partner at advisory firm Architect Partners, blamed the SEC’s “no framework and attack every crypto company enforcement strategy.” 

An SEC spokesperson said the agency does not comment on individual companies.

Richardson supported Donald Trump, noting on X how he shared Exodus’s story with the now president-elect. Veronica McGregor, the firm’s legal chief I spoke with in August, was involved in the Crypto4Harris group’s efforts.

McGregor told me after the election she looked forward to working with the new administration, adding “there is zero reason for crypto to be a partisan issue.”

While legislation could take a while to accomplish, she noted, changing the leadership and focus of regulators can (and should) be done more quickly.

“Our top priority is making sure there is a dramatic shift in attitude and approach by regulators such as the SEC,” she added. “The ongoing theme of trying to cram new technology and business models into ancient legal and regulatory frameworks is not merely unproductive, it is also especially detrimental to business and innovation.”

On the public listing, Exodus just submitted a response to the SEC’s latest comment letter and is awaiting next steps, a spokesperson told me.

Even with Trump set to be president, SEC reforms won’t happen overnight, Richardson acknowledged. 

He noted: “I’d expect his administration to start laying the groundwork within the first year, bringing in the right experts and setting a regulatory foundation that aligns with his campaign promises.”

— Ben Strack

• Coinbase on Tuesday launched the COIN 50 index, which tracks the top 50 digital assets by market cap listed on the exchange. Select Coinbase Institutional and Advanced clients will be able to trade the index, which was up 2% and hovering around $392 as of 2 pm ET. 

• Italy is likely to walk back its proposed 42% crypto tax to 28%, according to a report from Bloomberg. 

• Republican elections for the newly controlled GOP Senate are expected to take place tomorrow via a secret ballot, meaning current and incoming senators can vote anonymously.