Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Congress is talking about crypto. But that might be all they’re doing. 

• Hester Peirce’s priorities…and a plea for patience. 

• Laying out 2025 bitcoin price targets, with a twist.

The view from Capitol Hill

Congress has been busy (by its standards, at least) on the crypto front.

First, David Sacks — the country’s first AI and crypto “czar” — hosted an inaugural press conference, during which he declared a commitment to keeping digital asset innovation in the US. 

House and Senate Committee leadership also took this opportunity to unveil a new bicameral crypto working group. If this sounds like a committee of committees, it’s because that’s pretty much exactly what it is. 

Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Hagerty introduced a new stablecoin bill. The language is pretty similar to text we saw last Congress, focusing on reserve requirements and audits. It also allows non-banks to issue stablecoins, and has at least some bipartisan support, thanks to longtime crypto advocate Democrat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. 

Then, today, we got the first crypto-related hearing of the session. The Senate Banking Committee this morning gathered to discuss debanking and so-called “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.” 

The hearing coincides with reports that the FDIC plans to adjust its crypto guidelines and allow banks to participate in some crypto activities. 

It started out mellow enough. Chair Tim Scott talked about a life-changing loan he got from a community bank in the 90s. Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren said her office has identified more than 11,000 cases of individuals complaining of limited access to banking services. 

It seems both parties emphatically agree that debanking is happening, and it’s a problem. But what’s causing it and how to stop it are points of contention. It didn’t take long for the party lines to show. 

Being stripped of banking privileges for having a few bounced checks is unfair, said Warren, who focused most of her statements on individual customers vs. companies.

Not so fast, Sen. Thom Tillis countered. Banks shouldn’t be forced to service all customers. 

“That's called managing a risk,” he said. 

Whether or not banks that refuse services to certain businesses and customers are doing so out of risk management or at the direction of federal regulators was also a point of contention. 

“The CFPB is the one agency that is actively working to stop unfair debanking,” Warren said. “Right now, the agency has five different rules — either in place or in progress — that would help prevent debanking by addressing some of the root causes, from overdraft fee practices to religious discrimination.”

The comment comes on the heels of the CFPB’s new acting chair, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ordering the agency to halt virtually all pending operations. 

Several Republicans argued the opposite. The issue of debanking is only exacerbated by federal agencies. 

“Under the Biden administration, we've seen the rise of what many are calling Operation Choke Point 2.0 where federal regulators exploited their power, pressuring banks to cut off services to individuals and businesses with conservative dispositions, or folks aligned with industries they just didn’t like,” Scott said. 

Other Democrats took the hearing as an opportunity to voice concerns about DOGE, the new task force led by Elon Musk, and its access to the Treasury’s payments system. 

“The DOGE crowd, there is one person [who] maybe has clearance, and the others, we have no freaking idea,” Sen. Mark Warner said. He declined to use his allotted time to ask witnesses any questions. 

Like I said, politics is getting in the way. The victory lap the crypto industry has run since election night is bumping into some hurdles.

— Casey Wagner

As the US financial system adapts to the rise of digital assets, institutional leaders are making their next big moves. What role will crypto play in global markets? How are fund managers positioning for the future?

At DAS NYC, you’ll hear directly from decision-makers at VanEck, Brevan Howard, and Binance as they unpack the evolving regulatory, macro, and investment landscape. From ETFs to onchain finance, these conversations will define the next era of institutional crypto.

Don’t just watch from the sidelines, be in the room where it happens.

📅 March 18-20 | NYC

The ISM services PMI declined from 54.1 in December to 52.8 in January, coming in lower than analysts’ expectations of 54.3. The figure is still relatively positive though, as anything higher than 50 shows expansion in the sector. 

The index has now been in expansion-territory for seven consecutive months, the Institute for Supply Management said.

About two weeks after the SEC formed a crypto task force, unit leader Hester Peirce checked in.  

The rough message: We’re working on a bunch of things, but please be patient. 

Peirce (no surprise) criticized the previous path taken by the SEC. It “incessantly slammed on the enforcement brakes as it lurched along a meandering route with a destination not discernible to anyone.”

Further, its handling of crypto “has been marked by legal imprecision and commercial impracticality” (in case you didn’t already know how Peirce felt). 

It’ll take time to “disentangle all these strands,” she noted several times — ongoing litigation included. Seemingly related, the SEC plans to scale back staff focused on crypto enforcement actions, the New York Times reported. 

Among 10 listed priorities, Pierce notes the status of crypto assets under the securities laws as “fundamental to resolving many other questions.” This jibes with what Bitwise general counsel Katherine Dowling told me about the “dolphins in the fish nets” — alluding to assets the SEC has previously labeled as securities.

Another priority is to identify areas that fall outside the SEC’s jurisdiction — a signal the agency intends to stay in its lane.

Other focuses include creating a framework for custodying client assets; offering clarity on if and how crypto lending and staking programs are covered by securities laws; and creating some sort of cross-border sandbox for crypto projects.

On crypto ETFs, the task force will be clear about its approach when approving/disapproving new planned products, Peirce promises. As issuers look to add staking and in-kind creations/redemptions to existing products, she added, the SEC may first need to make progress on custody (and other) issues.

The SEC is working toward these goals “in an orderly, practical and legally defensible way,” Peirce made clear.

And so, she reminds those eager for change: “It took us a long time to get into this mess, and it is going to take us some time to get out of it.”

— Ben Strack

After bitcoin’s ascent to $109,000 and a more recent decline below $93,000, the asset’s price has fluctuated between those levels.

While price predictions remain a normal part of industry fodder, Copper.co took a bit of a different approach. 

The crypto custody firm blended technical indicators (like the Relative Strength Index) with historical returns, volatility clustering and daily range behavior to forecast possible BTC price outcomes.

“Our main goal was not to pinpoint a specific final peak for bitcoin, but instead to identify price points at which traders might consider the market to be overextended,” Copper.co research head Fadi Aboualfa said in a statement.

The firm’s model indicated “concern levels” for BTC between $140,000 and $200,000 throughout 2025. High-accuracy (up to 91%) simulations paralleling last year’s calmer volatility profile signaled a potential breach near $165,000 in June.

“To clarify, these are not levels bitcoin will necessarily reach, but if it does, the market might be suggesting a potential peak,” the study explains. 

The report calls bitcoin’s declining 30-day rolling volatility an “often-overlooked factor” — noting that low volatility allows a longer, smoother price climb. The simulations found any BTC price dip is projected to be short-lived. 

Targets can, of course, be negated by external catalysts, the report warns.

“If bitcoin hits some of these upper limit projections and the next day the US does indeed announce a strategic reserve, are you shorting?” it poses. “Unlikely.”

— Ben Strack

• MicroStrategy has a new name, and it’s not “top corporate bitcoin holder.” The business intelligence firm will now go by simply “Strategy.” 

• Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange Bullish is reportedly considering an IPO in 2025, according to Bloomberg. 

• Alphabet shares lost more than 7% Wednesday after reporting that its cloud business missed on revenue last quarter. Execs also increased capital expenditures for 2025 from $57.9 billion to $75 billion.