Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• Three more close US Senate races the crypto industry will be eyeing. 

• The price levels to watch for next after BTC saw an early Election Day surge.

• How pensions are wading into the crypto arena — slowly, but surely.  

The US Senate races the crypto industry will be watching tonight 

Happy Election Day to our US readers! This email will be hitting your inbox while the polls are still open in every state, so go out and vote if you haven’t already! 

Yesterday we wrote about one close race in the Senate that has caught the attention of big crypto donors. Here are some other Senate races we will be watching tonight: 

Utah Senate Seat: Caroline Gleich (D) v. Rep. John Curtis (R)

In the race to replace outgoing senator Mitt Romney, current US Rep. Curtis is polling ahead of Democrat Gleich by 35% — a lead largely attributed to the crypto industry. 

The Defend American Jobs PAC (part of the Fairshake Super PAC trio) donated $1.9 million to Curtis’s campaign as of mid-October, making up almost 35% of the representative’s total contributions. 

Curtis co-sponsored two crypto-related bills in the House this session: the FIT21 Act and the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act. He also voted in favor of the bill that sought to discredit the SEC’s SAB 121 guidance, which was ultimately vetoed by President Biden. 

“[It] is so important to get government involved, because if they don’t understand what you’re doing, they’ll make really bad decisions,” Curtis said last month at Blockworks’ Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City. “The worst part of regulation is its unpredictability.”

Michigan Senate Seat: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) v. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R)

This race will be interesting for two reasons. First, it’s going to be very close, according to the latest polls, which have Slotkin leading Rogers 49% to 48%. Second, it’s one of very few races this year where both candidates appear relatively supportive of crypto. 

Slotkin has an A rating from Stand With Crypto, and she voted in favor of both FIT21 and the bill to overturn SAB 121. The Protect Progress PAC (the Democratic pro-crypto group associated with Fairshake) has spent more than $10 million supporting Slotkin since the end of October, FEC filings show. 

While Rogers also headed into Election Day with a Stand With Crypto A rating, the data to support this ranking is a bit less robust. Rogers, a US representative from 2001 to 2015, doesn’t have a crypto voting record, but has leaned into pro-crypto messaging throughout his campaign. 

Arizona Senate Seat: Ruben Gallego (D) v. Kari Lake (R)

In another race shaping up to be neck and neck, Lake and Gallego also both have A ratings from Stand With Crypto. 

Lake has publicly supported Donald Trump’s statements on bitcoin as a “last line of defense” against foreign adversaries and has been accepting bitcoin donations throughout her campaign. 

Gallego, like Slotkin, also voted in favor of the SAB 121 resolution and FIT21. He has backing from Protect Progress to the tune of $10 million. 

Keep your eye on Blockworks.co tonight for the latest updates on more crypto-related races. 

— Casey Wagner

The amount that three pro-crypto super PACs — Defend American Jobs, Protect Progress and Fairshake — have collectively spent between the beginning of 2023 and Oct. 16, 2024, according to FEC data. 

The biggest recipients include Bernie Moreno (running against Senator Sherrod Brown), who, in the first nine months of 2024, received $34.3 million in donations and other support from Defend American Jobs.

You already know it’s Election Day, and we’ve detailed the events leading up to today and what the results could spur in crypto land. 

Bitcoin’s price surged above $70,000 Tuesday morning, before dropping below that threshold. BTC stood at roughly $70,170 just after 2 pm ET — up 3.5% from 24 hours prior.

Bitfinex analysts said in an email that BTC, historically, has responded positively to periods of political change, especially when fiscal and monetary policies are uncertain.

“The demand for safe-haven assets amidst rising US debt and deficits could drive bitcoin’s appeal as election outcomes unfold,” they wrote.

BitOoda analysts noted in a Tuesday report that implied volatility remains elevated. That is likely to persist throughout the week due to the uncertainty around the election and the Fed’s Thursday meeting, they explained.

“The options market is signaling potential price movements of around 8% following the election, compared to the typical 2% daily fluctuation,” the BitOoda analysts added. 

CoinFund managing partner Seth Ginns told Blockworks he would be watching the $75,000 level. “If we break decisively above it, we’d expect a quick and large follow-through,” he noted. 

Following bitcoin’s rise above $73,000 last week (and subsequent decline), Ledn CIO John Glover predicted another test of the $74,000 level before the election results come in. A Republican win could bring a “quick jump” to around $82,000, he added, followed by a period of “sideways-to-lower trading” in the $68,000 to $72,000 range. 

“A break and close below $63,000…could open up the potential for a correction down to $55,000 to 62,000, but that is not my preferred count,” Glover said.

— Ben Strack

Regardless of the election outcome and its impact on crypto prices, some industry watchers have repeatedly noted the long-term tailwinds for BTC.

Among them are ongoing government deficit spending, Fed monetary policy and increased institutional adoption. A large demographic related to the latter is pensions and endowments, which brings us to some of the latest news. 

You may have seen last month that Emory University disclosed owning $15 million of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust and 4,000-plus shares of Coinbase. Then yesterday, a 13F filing detailed the State of Michigan Retirement System’s exposure to crypto. 

Wisconsin’s investment board earlier this year revealed bitcoin ETF holdings amounting to roughly $100 million. So, more surprising than the Michigan fund’s $7 million of exposure to the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (as of Sept. 30) was its ownership of roughly $11 million worth of Grayscale ether ETFs.

Also on Monday, consultant firm Cartwright revealed that an unnamed UK pension scheme made a 3% allocation to bitcoin, “reflecting the scheme’s relatively long investment time horizon.” The decision came “after a rigorous training and due diligence process,” it noted.

Samara Cohen, BlackRock's CIO of ETF and index investments, said at Blockworks’ Permissionless conference last month that there remains “a fair amount of plumbing” needed to unlock the ability for pensions and endowments to gain BTC exposure. 

“It could be…what is the financial position of the fund [and] does it make sense to have a bitcoin allocation?” she explained. “And if the answer is yes, does a state law permit the fund to buy bitcoin ETPs? Do their investment guidelines? Does their board?”

Bitcoin-focused platform Onramp noted that Cartwright chose them as the asset manager and custodian to provide their clients with BTC access. Onramp CEO Michael Tanguma told me he expects other pensions to follow suit, noting that he believes bitcoin will ultimately be a core asset in all portfolios. 

He added: “The banks stepping in to custody bitcoin, as well as bitcoin's price inevitably hitting the six-figure mark in 2025, will dictate how fast the rest of the institutions follow.”

— Ben Strack

• US ISM Services came in better than expected Tuesday — at 56% for October, vs. the anticipated 53.4%. A reading above 50% indicates economic growth. 

• The VIX was trading at 20.65 Tuesday afternoon at 2 pm ET. It’s a decline from Monday’s 22, which marked the highest Election Day Eve reading since 1990 (excluding the dotcom bubble burst, 2008 and 2020). A reading above 20 indicates heightened volatility.