Welcome to the Forward Guidance newsletter, brought to you by Casey Wagner and Ben Strack. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

• US spot bitcoin ETFs have been live for 11 months. Ben shares 11 observations.

• November’s CPI data is in. What does it mean for rates?

• Casey details what’s behind the Chinese yuan dip.

11 bitcoin ETF facts 11 months after US listings

It’s been 11 months since US spot bitcoin ETFs went live on Jan. 11. 

To mark the occasion, here are 11 facts about those products:

1. Combined net inflows now stand at $34.3 billion, according to Farside Investors data. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone has welcomed $35 billion to its coffers, while Fidelity’s product is the runner-up with flows of $12.1 billion.

2. Since Nov. 6 (the day Donald Trump was named the election winner, removing crypto’s remaining reputational risk for many), the bitcoin ETF category has reeled in $10.8 billion of new capital. 

3. The segment has collectively notched net inflows on 158 of 231 trading days (68% of the time). The best day (nearly $1.4 billion) came on Nov. 7. The most outflows ($564 million, on May 1) were attributed in part to a profit-taking-fueled BTC dip. 

4. BlackRock’s IBIT had $50.8 billion in assets, as of Dec. 10. That’s about $17 billion more than the firm’s Gold Trust (IAU), which launched in 2005; but it’s about $24 billion less than the assets in State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which hit the market in 2004.

5. While IBIT’s average daily inflows are $152 million, that figure for the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) stands at less than $1 million.

6. On the point of varying flow success, nearly $21 billion has left the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) — a result largely anticipated. The firm’s cheaper Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), launched on July 31, has captured almost $900 million of new money.  

7. As for volumes, an average of 44.5 million IBIT shares trade per day (worth roughly $2.6 billion at IBIT’s current price). The BlackRock product ranks eighth in that category (by shares) across all ETFs in the trailing three months — slightly behind the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).   

8. Since spot ether ETFs hit US markets on July 23, capital entering the BTC products ($16.8 billion) is roughly nine times more than the net flows ($1.9 billion) going into their ETH counterparts.

9. Institutional buyers of these ETFs have included hedge funds, advisers and even pension funds. Jersey City officials told Blockworks the city’s pension fund planned to buy bitcoin ETFs this month.

10. Data shared by Bloomberg Intelligence suggests bitcoin ETFs now hold more bitcoin than the estimated 1.1 million BTC held by Satoshi Nakamoto. Put another way, this is about 5% of the overall bitcoin supply.

11. Lastly, the value of each fund’s BTC stash — compared to how much they paid for the coins — may not be what you think. Blockworks’ David Canellis wrote about this recently.

Bitwise executives predicted Tuesday that bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows next year than they did in 2024. Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks and go from there.

— Ben Strack

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After talking plenty about bitcoin products, 12 is the number of consecutive trading days US spot ether ETFs have tallied net inflows.

The ETH ETFs have welcomed more than $1.8 billion of capital from Nov. 22 to Dec. 10, with about $306 million of that coming on Tuesday.

November’s CPI report came in as expected before the market opened this morning, showing prices increased 2.7% year over year. So-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.3% in the 12 months ended November, also on par with forecasts. 

Month over month, CPI rose 0.3% in November. All in all, investors were happy to see a report that didn’t come in hotter than expected. But the numbers show higher prices are still proving to be sticky. 

Markets reacted well to the news. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading 0.8% and 1.7% higher, respectively, at 2 pm ET. Bitcoin also bounced, gaining about 4% over 24 hours and hovering around the $100,500 level this afternoon. 

On a sector-by-sector basis, housing costs are still accounting for almost 40% of the overall monthly increase in inflation. The shelter index rose 0.3% last month, which is down slightly from October. It’s the smallest monthly increase since 2021, though, which is encouraging. 

Today’s report seems to be the last push markets needed to bet on a 25-basis point interest cut from the FOMC next week. Per Fed funds futures markets, investors are 95% certain we will end the year with lower rates, according to CME Group data. 

Still on tap this week is November’s PPI report, slated to be released tomorrow ahead of the open. If it’s anything like today, though, I wouldn’t hold your breath for a change in the rate-cut odds.

— Casey Wagner

The Chinese yuan fell against the US dollar Wednesday morning after Reuters reported Chinese officials may opt to move away from their “stable currency” policy in response to tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. 

The key words here are “stable currency policy.” That’s not to be confused with “stablecoin policy,” which China also has (but that’s a topic for another newsletter). China’s central bank is notorious for its commitments to keep the yuan stable, but a strategic currency devaluation does have some historical precedent. 

It’s a tool China used back in 2018 and 2019 during Trump’s first term. Allowing the yuan to lose value against the dollar makes exports less expensive, potentially offsetting the 10% tariff Trump has said he’d impose during his second stint in Washington; but devaluation also poses risks to the local economy. Hypothetically, foreign buyers may be paying less for Chinese goods, but Chinese consumers would be paying more. 

The Chinese yuan slid around 0.2% Wednesday, dropping to 7.26 per dollar. Year to date, the yuan has lost 2.4% against the dollar. 

The move comes as President Joe Biden plans to increase Section 301 tariffs designed to target China’s cleantech industry during his final weeks in office. 

“Many countries, when they're faced with unilateral actions of that sort, look for ways to retaliate,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Bloomberg today when asked about Trump’s broad tariff plans for China. “My guess would be that [China] would do that.” 

We’re 40 days out from the inauguration, so this story is just getting started. Keep an eye on your inbox.

— Casey Wagner

• Similar to bitcoin’s 4% price gain over the past 24 hours, as of 2 pm ET, ether had surged about 4.5% in that span to regain the $3,800 level.

• We wrote yesterday about the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee’s Wednesday vote to decide whether Caroline Crenshaw would remain an SEC commissioner. We’ll discuss the upcoming results tomorrow.

• Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expect MicroStrategy to be added to the Nasdaq 100. It’s not a sure thing, and we’re likely to get more clarity on that on Friday, so stay tuned.